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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Benfica

S S S S S

4–1

Full-time

Nacional

S T T T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Benfica Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

100%

17%

Points per game

3,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

2,7

3,2

Scored

2,2

1,0

Conceded

0,5

2,2

Goal diff per game

+1,7

-1,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 33/33 matches

Win Ø 58%

85%

30%

Points per game

2,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

64%

55%

Both score Ø 44%

39%

48%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

2,5

1,2

Conceded

0,6

1,6

Goal diff per game

+1,9

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

66% Possession 34%

16 Shots 6

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

2 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

14 Free kicks against 12

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Benfica 1. · Nacional 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	33	28	1	4	+63	85
2	Sp Lisbon	33	26	5	2	+54	83
3	Porto	34	23	4	7	+37	73
4	Sp Braga	33	16	10	7	+23	58
5	Arouca	34	13	15	6	+9	54
6	Rio Ave	34	14	8	12	+0	50
7	Pacos Ferreira	34	13	10	11	+1	49
8	Estoril	34	13	8	13	-1	47
9	Belenenses	34	10	11	13	-22	41
10	Guimaraes	34	9	13	12	-8	40
11	Nacional	33	10	8	15	-13	38
12	Moreirense	34	9	9	16	-16	36
13	Maritimo	34	10	5	19	-18	35
14	Boavista	34	8	9	17	-17	33
15	Tondela	34	8	6	20	-20	30
16	Vitoria Setubal	34	6	12	16	-21	30
17	U. Madeira	34	7	8	19	-23	29
18	Academica	34	5	10	19	-28	25

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	16	14	0	2	+36	42
2	Sp Lisbon	17	13	3	1	+27	42
3	Porto	17	12	2	3	+22	38
4	Sp Braga	16	11	4	1	+28	37
5	Estoril	17	9	4	4	+8	31
6	Arouca	17	8	6	3	+10	30
7	Nacional	17	8	4	5	+5	28
8	Rio Ave	17	9	1	7	+2	28
9	Pacos Ferreira	17	7	4	6	+2	25
10	U. Madeira	17	6	6	5	+2	24
11	Maritimo	17	7	2	8	+2	23
12	Belenenses	17	6	5	6	-7	23
13	Guimaraes	17	5	7	5	+4	22
14	Academica	17	5	5	7	-8	20
15	Boavista	17	4	5	8	-7	17
16	Vitoria Setubal	17	2	9	6	-10	15
17	Moreirense	17	3	5	9	-9	14
18	Tondela	17	3	4	10	-11	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	17	14	1	2	+27	43
2	Sp Lisbon	16	13	2	1	+27	41
3	Porto	17	11	2	4	+15	35
4	Pacos Ferreira	17	6	6	5	-1	24
5	Arouca	17	5	9	3	-1	24
6	Rio Ave	17	5	7	5	-2	22
7	Moreirense	17	6	4	7	-7	22
8	Sp Braga	17	5	6	6	-5	21
9	Guimaraes	17	4	6	7	-12	18
10	Belenenses	17	4	6	7	-15	18
11	Tondela	17	5	2	10	-9	17
12	Estoril	17	4	4	9	-9	16
13	Boavista	17	4	4	9	-10	16
14	Vitoria Setubal	17	4	3	10	-11	15
15	Maritimo	17	3	3	11	-20	12
16	Nacional	16	2	4	10	-18	10
17	Academica	17	0	5	12	-20	5
18	U. Madeira	17	1	2	14	-25	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.