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Primeira Liga
Referee: Joao Mendes
Feirense
S T T
2–1
Full-time
Tondela
S S T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.
🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Feirense Tondela
Last 6 — all competitions · 3/6 matches
Win Ø 33%
33%
33%
Points per game
1,0
1,3
Over 2.5 Ø 25%
33%
17%
Both score Ø 25%
0%
50%
Average goals
2,0
2,3
Scored
0,7
1,3
Conceded
1,3
1,0
Goal diff per game
-0,7
+0,3
This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches
Win Ø 17%
33%
0%
Points per game
1,0
0,3
Over 2.5 Ø 17%
33%
0%
Both score Ø 17%
0%
33%
Average goals
2,0
1,7
Scored
0,7
0,3
Conceded
1,3
1,3
Goal diff per game
-0,7
-1,0
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

43% Possession 57%
8 Shots 8
4 Shots on target 2
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 5
4 Offside 2
21 Free kicks against 23
5 Yellow cards 5
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Feirense 12. · Tondela 16. ▾
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Sp Lisbon 4 4 0 0 +7 12
2 Sp Braga 4 3 1 0 +6 10
3 Benfica 4 3 1 0 +5 10
4 Porto 4 3 0 1 +5 9
5 Vitoria Setubal 4 2 2 0 +4 8
6 Rio Ave 4 2 1 1 +0 7
7 Belenenses 4 2 1 1 +0 7
8 Chaves 4 1 3 0 +1 6
9 Guimaraes 4 2 0 2 +0 6
10 Boavista 4 1 2 1 -1 5
11 Moreirense 4 1 1 2 -1 4
12 Feirense 3 1 0 2 -2 3
13 Arouca 4 1 0 3 -3 3
14 Maritimo 4 1 0 3 -4 3
15 Pacos Ferreira 4 0 2 2 -3 2
16 Tondela 3 0 1 2 -3 1
17 Estoril 4 0 1 3 -5 1
18 Nacional 4 0 0 4 -6 0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Feirense Tondela
1–0 A. Karamanos ⚽
Sérgio Barge
9′
16′
🟨 Mamadu Cande
Cris 🟨
22′
40′
🟨 Hélder Tavares
42′
🟨 Crislan
Half-time 1–0
46′
🔁 Fernando Ferreira
↦ V. Lystsov
2–0 A. Karamanos ⚽
Cris
57′
63′
🔁 J. Murillo
↦ Hélder Tavares
65′
🔁 Zé Turbo
↦ E. Moreno
Semedo 🟨
66′
68′
⚽ Mamadu Candé 2–1
Icaro 🟨
69′
Fabinho 🔁
↦ Tiago Silva
69′
70′
🟨 Fernando Ferreira
81′
🟨 Wagner
Vitor Bruno 🟨
82′
Platiny 🔁
↦ Luís Machado
87′
Fabinho 🟨
90′
Paulo Monteiro 🔁
↦ A. Karamanos
92′
Full-time 2–1

Line-ups

Feirense

4-2-3-1
1 Peçanha
35 Sérgio Barge D
2 Icaro D
13 Luís Rocha D
90 Vítor Bruno D
17 Cris M
6 Sérgio Semedo M
30 Luís Aurélio M
8 Tiago Silva M
7 Luís Machado M
9 A. Karamanos F
Bench (7)
10 Fabinho
99 Platiny
37 Paulo Monteiro
3 A. Kakuba
11 Vieirinha
32 Flavio
91 Vaná

Coach: José Mota

Tondela

4-4-2
1 Cláudio Ramos G
3 Pica D
44 Rafael Amorim D
24 Mamadu Candé D
79 V. Lystsov D
13 Jaílson D
7 C. Gonçalves M
8 Hélder Tavares M
16 E. Moreno F
28 Wagner F
18 Crislan F
Bench (7)
14 Fernando Ferreira
15 J. Murillo
9 Zé Turbo
4 Kaká
22 David Bruno
77 Murilo
12 Ricardo Janota

Coach: Petit

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
–
🔒
U1,5
–
🔒
O2,5 ✓
–
🔒
U2,5
–
🔒
O3,5
–
🔒
U3,5 ✓
–
🔒
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
–
🔒
BLS nei
–
🔒

Recent matches

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.