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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Rio Ave

S T U T T

1–0

Full-time

Sp Braga

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Rio Ave Sp Braga

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,2

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 50%

39%

61%

Points per game

1,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

56%

50%

Both score Ø 56%

61%

50%

Average goals

2,7

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

1,4

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,2

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

60% Possession 40%

9 Shots 4

2 Shots on target 2

5 Blocked shots 0

2 Goalkeeper saves 1

8 Corners 3

0 Offside 7

15 Free kicks against 18

3 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 1

The table before the match Rio Ave 10. · Sp Braga 4. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	19	14	3	2	+29	45
2	Porto	19	13	5	1	+27	44
3	Sp Lisbon	19	11	5	3	+15	38
4	Sp Braga	18	11	3	4	+15	36
5	Guimaraes	19	10	5	4	+9	35
6	Vitoria Setubal	19	8	4	7	+2	28
7	Maritimo	19	8	4	7	+1	28
8	Chaves	19	6	9	4	+2	27
9	Boavista	19	6	6	7	-1	24
10	Rio Ave	18	7	3	8	-3	24
11	Arouca	19	7	3	9	-5	24
12	Belenenses	19	6	5	8	-5	23
13	Feirense	19	5	4	10	-18	19
14	Moreirense	19	5	3	11	-12	18
15	Pacos Ferreira	19	4	5	10	-13	17
16	Estoril	19	4	3	12	-11	15
17	Nacional	19	3	4	12	-14	13
18	Tondela	19	3	4	12	-18	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	10	9	1	0	+17	28
2	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+15	25
3	Sp Braga	10	8	1	1	+15	25
4	Benfica	9	7	2	0	+19	23
5	Vitoria Setubal	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	Maritimo	9	5	2	2	+5	17
7	Chaves	10	4	5	1	+4	17
8	Guimaraes	9	3	4	2	+2	13
9	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+0	13
10	Rio Ave	9	4	1	4	-1	13
11	Arouca	10	4	1	5	-1	13
12	Belenenses	9	3	3	3	-1	12
13	Boavista	9	3	2	4	+1	11
14	Tondela	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Feirense	10	3	2	5	-9	11
16	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Nacional	10	2	3	5	-7	9
18	Estoril	9	2	1	6	-5	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	7	1	2	+10	22
2	Guimaraes	10	7	1	2	+7	22
3	Porto	9	4	4	1	+10	16
4	Sp Lisbon	9	3	4	2	+0	13
5	Boavista	10	3	4	3	-2	13
6	Sp Braga	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-2	11
8	Arouca	9	3	2	4	-4	11
9	Belenenses	10	3	2	5	-4	11
10	Maritimo	10	3	2	5	-4	11
11	Chaves	9	2	4	3	-2	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	3	4	-4	9
13	Moreirense	10	3	0	7	-9	9
14	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-6	8
15	Feirense	9	2	2	5	-9	8
16	Nacional	9	1	1	7	-7	4
17	Pacos Ferreira	10	1	1	8	-13	4
18	Tondela	10	0	2	8	-17	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.