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Primeira Liga

Referee: Tiago Martins

Sp Braga

U U S T S

5–1

Full-time

Rio Ave

T T U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Braga Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

3,0

3,2

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

1,2

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 45%

50%

39%

Points per game

1,8

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

39%

61%

Both score Ø 47%

33%

61%

Average goals

2,3

2,9

Scored

1,6

1,5

Conceded

0,7

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,8

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

52% Possession 48%

14 Shots 13

9 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 5

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

4 Offside 2

0 Free kicks against 0

2 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Braga 4. · Rio Ave 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	19	15	3	1	+28	48
2	Benfica	19	15	1	3	+37	46
3	Porto	18	12	4	2	+25	40
4	Sp Braga	18	9	5	4	+15	32
5	Pacos Ferreira	19	8	5	6	+5	29
6	Guimaraes	19	7	6	6	-3	27
7	Rio Ave	18	7	4	7	+1	25
8	Vitoria Setubal	19	6	7	6	-5	25
9	Arouca	19	5	9	5	+0	24
10	Estoril	19	6	5	8	-4	23
11	U. Madeira	19	6	5	8	-8	23
12	Belenenses	19	5	7	7	-15	22
13	Maritimo	18	6	3	9	-10	21
14	Moreirense	19	5	5	9	-9	20
15	Nacional	19	4	5	10	-10	17
16	Academica	19	4	5	10	-16	17
17	Boavista	18	3	4	11	-14	13
18	Tondela	18	2	3	13	-17	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	9	0	1	+26	27
2	Porto	9	7	2	0	+15	23
3	Sp Lisbon	9	7	2	0	+12	23
4	Rio Ave	10	6	0	4	+3	18
5	U. Madeira	10	5	3	2	+3	18
6	Sp Braga	8	5	2	1	+14	17
7	Pacos Ferreira	10	5	2	3	+6	17
8	Belenenses	9	4	4	1	+2	16
9	Estoril	9	4	3	2	+4	15
10	Academica	10	4	3	3	-3	15
11	Maritimo	9	4	2	3	+5	14
12	Arouca	9	4	2	3	+2	14
13	Nacional	9	3	3	3	+0	12
14	Guimaraes	10	3	3	4	+0	12
15	Vitoria Setubal	10	2	6	2	-6	12
16	Moreirense	9	2	3	4	-3	9
17	Boavista	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Tondela	9	1	1	7	-11	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	1	1	+16	25
2	Benfica	9	6	1	2	+11	19
3	Porto	9	5	2	2	+10	17
4	Sp Braga	10	4	3	3	+1	15
5	Guimaraes	9	4	3	2	-3	15
6	Vitoria Setubal	9	4	1	4	+1	13
7	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	3	3	-1	12
8	Moreirense	10	3	2	5	-6	11
9	Arouca	10	1	7	2	-2	10
10	Estoril	10	2	2	6	-8	8
11	Rio Ave	8	1	4	3	-2	7
12	Maritimo	9	2	1	6	-15	7
13	Belenenses	10	1	3	6	-17	6
14	Tondela	9	1	2	6	-6	5
15	Boavista	9	1	2	6	-8	5
16	Nacional	10	1	2	7	-10	5
17	U. Madeira	9	1	2	6	-11	5
18	Academica	9	0	2	7	-13	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.