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Primeira Liga

Referee: Bruno Miguel Duarte Paixao

Tondela

U T T U U

1–4

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

T S S S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Tondela Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

17%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

17%

67%

Average goals

1,5

3,2

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 24/24 matches

Win Ø 36%

13%

58%

Points per game

0,7

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

42%

54%

Both score Ø 50%

46%

54%

Average goals

2,3

2,8

Scored

0,7

1,8

Conceded

1,6

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

36% Possession 64%

10 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 8

2 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 3

1 Offside 1

23 Free kicks against 22

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Tondela 17. · Sp Lisbon 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	25	19	5	1	+46	62
2	Benfica	24	19	3	2	+39	60
3	Sp Lisbon	24	14	6	4	+18	48
4	Sp Braga	25	12	7	6	+15	43
5	Guimaraes	24	11	7	6	+6	40
6	Maritimo	24	10	7	7	+3	37
7	Chaves	25	7	12	6	+1	33
8	Rio Ave	24	9	5	10	-2	32
9	Belenenses	24	8	8	8	-3	32
10	Boavista	24	7	9	8	-1	30
11	Vitoria Setubal	25	8	6	11	-2	30
12	Feirense	25	8	5	12	-17	29
13	Arouca	25	8	3	14	-16	27
14	Pacos Ferreira	24	6	7	11	-11	25
15	Estoril	24	5	5	14	-14	20
16	Moreirense	24	5	5	14	-15	20
17	Tondela	24	3	7	14	-23	16
18	Nacional	24	3	7	14	-24	16

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	12	1	0	+29	37
2	Benfica	12	10	2	0	+27	32
3	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	29
4	Sp Lisbon	12	9	2	1	+16	29
5	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+7	24
6	Chaves	13	5	7	1	+6	22
7	Vitoria Setubal	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	5	2	+3	20
9	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+0	18
10	Belenenses	12	4	5	3	+0	17
11	Guimaraes	11	4	4	3	+1	16
12	Arouca	13	5	1	7	-5	16
13	Feirense	13	4	2	7	-10	14
14	Boavista	11	3	3	5	+0	12
15	Tondela	11	3	3	5	-2	12
16	Moreirense	12	2	5	5	-4	11
17	Nacional	12	2	5	5	-7	11
18	Estoril	12	3	1	8	-8	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+12	28
2	Porto	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Guimaraes	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Sp Lisbon	12	5	4	3	+2	19
5	Boavista	13	4	6	3	-1	18
6	Belenenses	12	4	3	5	-3	15
7	Feirense	12	4	3	5	-7	15
8	Sp Braga	12	3	5	4	-1	14
9	Rio Ave	12	4	2	6	-2	14
10	Maritimo	12	3	4	5	-4	13
11	Chaves	12	2	5	5	-5	11
12	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-11	11
13	Estoril	12	2	4	6	-6	10
14	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Moreirense	12	3	0	9	-11	9
16	Pacos Ferreira	12	1	2	9	-14	5
17	Nacional	12	1	2	9	-17	5
18	Tondela	13	0	4	9	-21	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.