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Eredivisie

Referee: Christaan Bax

Excelsior

U U T T U

4–1

Full-time

Heerenveen

U T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Excelsior Heerenveen

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,7

3,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

2,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-1,7

+0,0

This season — Eredivisie · 25/23 matches

Win Ø 30%

16%

43%

Points per game

0,8

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

56%

70%

Both score Ø 63%

64%

61%

Average goals

3,0

Scored

1,1

1,8

Conceded

1,9

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

31% Possession 69%

13 Shots 11

7 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 5

0 Goalkeeper saves 3

6 Corners 1

4 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Excelsior 17. · Heerenveen 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	25	20	3	2	+47	63
2	Ajax	25	18	5	2	+36	59
3	PSV Eindhoven	26	17	7	2	+33	58
4	Vitesse	26	11	6	9	+9	39
5	Twente	25	10	8	7	+3	38
6	Utrecht	23	10	7	6	+5	37
7	Heerenveen	23	10	6	7	+14	36
8	AZ Alkmaar	23	8	11	4	+7	35
9	Heracles	26	8	7	11	-7	31
10	Willem II	25	7	8	10	-7	29
11	Nijmegen	26	7	7	12	-16	28
12	Zwolle	25	7	6	12	-20	27
13	Groningen	24	5	10	9	-4	25
14	Sparta Rotterdam	26	6	7	13	-15	25
15	Den Haag	26	6	4	16	-23	22
16	Go Ahead Eagles	26	5	5	16	-20	20
17	Excelsior	25	4	8	13	-21	20
18	Roda	25	3	11	11	-21	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Feyenoord	13	11	2	0	+30	35
2	PSV Eindhoven	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Ajax	12	9	2	1	+21	29
4	Twente	13	7	3	3	+6	24
5	Heerenveen	12	6	4	2	+9	22
6	Heracles	13	6	3	4	+6	21
7	Vitesse	13	6	2	5	+6	20
8	Nijmegen	13	5	4	4	+2	19
9	Utrecht	11	5	3	3	+4	18
10	AZ Alkmaar	12	3	7	2	+2	16
11	Sparta Rotterdam	12	4	4	4	+1	16
12	Zwolle	13	4	3	6	-9	15
13	Willem II	13	3	5	5	-6	14
14	Den Haag	13	4	2	7	-6	14
15	Excelsior	12	3	4	5	-3	13
16	Go Ahead Eagles	13	4	1	8	-7	13
17	Groningen	12	2	6	4	-7	12
18	Roda	12	2	5	5	-4	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Ajax	13	9	3	1	+15	30
2	PSV Eindhoven	13	8	4	1	+17	28
3	Feyenoord	12	9	1	2	+17	28
4	AZ Alkmaar	11	5	4	2	+5	19
5	Vitesse	13	5	4	4	+3	19
6	Utrecht	12	5	4	3	+1	19
7	Willem II	12	4	3	5	-1	15
8	Heerenveen	11	4	2	5	+5	14
9	Twente	12	3	5	4	-3	14
10	Groningen	12	3	4	5	+3	13
11	Zwolle	12	3	3	6	-11	12
12	Heracles	13	2	4	7	-13	10
13	Sparta Rotterdam	14	2	3	9	-16	9
14	Roda	13	1	6	6	-17	9
15	Nijmegen	13	2	3	8	-18	9
16	Den Haag	13	2	2	9	-17	8
17	Go Ahead Eagles	13	1	4	8	-13	7
18	Excelsior	13	1	4	8	-18	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.