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Primeira Liga

Referee: Rui Manuel Gomes Costa

Nacional

U U T U T

1–2

Full-time

Guimaraes

U S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Nacional Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

0,7

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,7

Scored

0,3

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 29%

12%

46%

Points per game

0,7

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 40%

38%

42%

Both score Ø 42%

38%

46%

Average goals

2,3

2,6

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,1

Goal diff per game

-1,0

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

51% Possession 49%

18 Shots 9

4 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 7

0 Offside 3

20 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Nacional 18. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	26	20	4	2	+43	64
2	Porto	26	19	6	1	+46	63
3	Sp Lisbon	26	16	6	4	+23	54
4	Sp Braga	26	13	7	6	+16	46
5	Guimaraes	26	12	8	6	+9	44
6	Maritimo	26	11	7	8	+2	40
7	Chaves	27	8	12	7	+1	36
8	Rio Ave	26	10	5	11	-4	35
9	Boavista	26	8	10	8	+2	34
10	Belenenses	26	8	8	10	-8	32
11	Feirense	26	9	5	12	-16	32
12	Vitoria Setubal	26	8	7	11	-2	31
13	Pacos Ferreira	27	6	9	12	-12	27
14	Arouca	26	8	3	15	-18	27
15	Estoril	26	5	7	14	-14	22
16	Moreirense	26	5	6	15	-16	21
17	Tondela	26	3	8	15	-26	17
18	Nacional	26	3	8	15	-26	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	2	0	+29	38
2	Benfica	13	11	2	0	+31	35
3	Sp Lisbon	13	10	2	1	+18	32
4	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	29
5	Maritimo	13	8	3	2	+9	27
6	Chaves	14	6	7	1	+7	25
7	Vitoria Setubal	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Pacos Ferreira	13	5	6	2	+3	21
9	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+1	21
10	Guimaraes	13	5	5	3	+4	20
11	Belenenses	13	4	5	4	-1	17
12	Feirense	14	5	2	7	-9	17
13	Arouca	13	5	1	7	-5	16
14	Boavista	12	4	3	5	+3	15
15	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-4	12
16	Tondela	12	3	3	6	-5	12
17	Nacional	13	2	6	5	-7	12
18	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	13	9	2	2	+12	29
2	Porto	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Guimaraes	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	4	3	+5	22
5	Boavista	14	4	7	3	-1	19
6	Sp Braga	13	4	5	4	+0	17
7	Feirense	12	4	3	5	-7	15
8	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-7	15
9	Rio Ave	13	4	2	7	-5	14
10	Maritimo	13	3	4	6	-7	13
11	Chaves	13	2	5	6	-6	11
12	Estoril	13	2	5	6	-6	11
13	Arouca	13	3	2	8	-13	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	13	2	4	7	-7	10
15	Moreirense	13	3	0	10	-12	9
16	Pacos Ferreira	14	1	3	10	-15	6
17	Nacional	13	1	2	10	-19	5
18	Tondela	14	0	5	9	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.