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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Guimaraes

U S U S S

2–1

Full-time

Nacional

S S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 39%

56%

22%

Points per game

1,9

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 44%

44%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

3,1

2,3

Scored

1,9

0,9

Conceded

1,2

1,4

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

49% Possession 51%

11 Shots 16

8 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 6

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 7

14 Free kicks against 21

3 Yellow cards 6

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Nacional 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	9	8	1	0	+18	25
2	Porto	9	6	2	1	+14	20
3	Sp Braga	9	6	2	1	+7	20
4	Sp Lisbon	9	5	3	1	+7	18
5	Guimaraes	9	5	2	2	+6	17
6	Chaves	9	3	4	2	+1	13
7	Rio Ave	9	3	2	4	-3	11
8	Feirense	9	3	2	4	-7	11
9	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	-1	10
10	Boavista	9	2	4	3	-2	10
11	Maritimo	9	3	1	5	-4	10
12	Pacos Ferreira	9	2	3	4	-3	9
13	Belenenses	9	2	3	4	-5	9
14	Nacional	9	2	2	5	-5	8
15	Moreirense	9	2	2	5	-5	8
16	Estoril	9	2	2	5	-6	8
17	Arouca	9	2	2	5	-6	8
18	Tondela	9	1	3	5	-6	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	5	4	1	0	+8	13
2	Sp Braga	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Porto	4	4	0	0	+9	12
4	Benfica	4	3	1	0	+9	10
5	Boavista	5	2	2	1	+3	8
6	Arouca	5	2	1	2	+1	7
7	Vitoria Setubal	5	2	1	2	+0	7
8	Chaves	5	1	3	1	+0	6
9	Rio Ave	5	2	0	3	-3	6
10	Guimaraes	4	1	2	1	+1	5
11	Pacos Ferreira	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Belenenses	4	1	2	1	-1	5
13	Maritimo	4	1	1	2	-1	4
14	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	Nacional	5	1	1	3	-5	4
16	Feirense	4	1	1	2	-5	4
17	Estoril	4	1	0	3	-4	3
18	Moreirense	4	0	2	2	-2	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	5	5	0	0	+9	15
2	Guimaraes	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Porto	5	2	2	1	+5	8
4	Sp Braga	4	2	1	1	+1	7
5	Chaves	4	2	1	1	+1	7
6	Feirense	5	2	1	2	-2	7
7	Moreirense	5	2	0	3	-3	6
8	Maritimo	5	2	0	3	-3	6
9	Rio Ave	4	1	2	1	+0	5
10	Sp Lisbon	4	1	2	1	-1	5
11	Estoril	5	1	2	2	-2	5
12	Nacional	4	1	1	2	+0	4
13	Pacos Ferreira	5	1	1	3	-3	4
14	Belenenses	5	1	1	3	-4	4
15	Vitoria Setubal	4	0	3	1	-1	3
16	Tondela	4	0	2	2	-3	2
17	Boavista	4	0	2	2	-5	2
18	Arouca	4	0	1	3	-7	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.