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Primeira Liga

Referee: Antonio Jorge Ferreira Goncalves

Sp Lisbon

S S S U S

2–0

Full-time

Nacional

U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Nacional

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

67%

Points per game

2,2

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,0

2,3

Scored

2,0

0,3

Conceded

1,0

2,0

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-1,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 36%

60%

12%

Points per game

2,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

56%

40%

Both score Ø 48%

56%

40%

Average goals

2,9

2,3

Scored

1,9

0,7

Conceded

1,0

1,6

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

61% Possession 39%

9 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 3

1 Blocked shots 3

3 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 4

12 Free kicks against 12

2 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 3. · Nacional 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	25	20	3	2	+43	63
2	Porto	25	19	5	1	+46	62
3	Sp Lisbon	25	15	6	4	+21	51
4	Sp Braga	26	13	7	6	+16	46
5	Guimaraes	25	11	8	6	+6	41
6	Maritimo	25	10	7	8	+0	37
7	Rio Ave	25	10	5	10	-1	35
8	Boavista	26	8	10	8	+2	34
9	Chaves	25	7	12	6	+1	33
10	Belenenses	26	8	8	10	-8	32
11	Vitoria Setubal	25	8	6	11	-2	30
12	Feirense	25	8	5	12	-17	29
13	Arouca	25	8	3	14	-16	27
14	Pacos Ferreira	25	6	8	11	-11	26
15	Estoril	26	5	7	14	-14	22
16	Moreirense	26	5	6	15	-16	21
17	Nacional	25	3	8	14	-24	17
18	Tondela	26	3	8	15	-26	17

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	13	12	1	0	+29	37
2	Benfica	13	11	2	0	+31	35
3	Sp Braga	13	9	2	2	+16	29
4	Sp Lisbon	12	9	2	1	+16	29
5	Maritimo	12	7	3	2	+7	24
6	Chaves	13	5	7	1	+6	22
7	Vitoria Setubal	13	6	3	4	+5	21
8	Rio Ave	13	6	3	4	+1	21
9	Pacos Ferreira	12	5	5	2	+3	20
10	Guimaraes	12	4	5	3	+1	17
11	Belenenses	13	4	5	4	-1	17
12	Arouca	13	5	1	7	-5	16
13	Boavista	12	4	3	5	+3	15
14	Feirense	13	4	2	7	-10	14
15	Moreirense	13	2	6	5	-4	12
16	Tondela	12	3	3	6	-5	12
17	Nacional	13	2	6	5	-7	12
18	Estoril	13	3	2	8	-8	11

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	12	9	1	2	+12	28
2	Porto	12	7	4	1	+17	25
3	Guimaraes	13	7	3	3	+5	24
4	Sp Lisbon	13	6	4	3	+5	22
5	Boavista	14	4	7	3	-1	19
6	Sp Braga	13	4	5	4	+0	17
7	Feirense	12	4	3	5	-7	15
8	Belenenses	13	4	3	6	-7	15
9	Rio Ave	12	4	2	6	-2	14
10	Maritimo	13	3	4	6	-7	13
11	Chaves	12	2	5	5	-5	11
12	Estoril	13	2	5	6	-6	11
13	Arouca	12	3	2	7	-11	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	12	2	3	7	-7	9
15	Moreirense	13	3	0	10	-12	9
16	Pacos Ferreira	13	1	3	9	-14	6
17	Nacional	12	1	2	9	-17	5
18	Tondela	14	0	5	9	-21	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.