Primeira Liga
Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.
The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.
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Vitoria Setubal
Boavista
Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.
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The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.
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Half-time score: 0–0
| # | Team | K | V | U | T | +/− | P |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |
Porto
|
7 | 7 | 0 | 0 | +16 | 21 |
| 2 |
Sp Lisbon
|
7 | 6 | 1 | 0 | +12 | 19 |
| 3 |
Benfica
|
7 | 5 | 1 | 1 | +10 | 16 |
| 4 |
Maritimo
|
7 | 5 | 0 | 2 | +3 | 15 |
| 5 |
Sp Braga
|
7 | 4 | 0 | 3 | +0 | 12 |
| 6 |
Rio Ave
|
7 | 3 | 2 | 2 | +2 | 11 |
| 7 |
Belenenses
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -2 | 10 |
| 8 |
Guimaraes
|
7 | 3 | 1 | 3 | -6 | 10 |
| 9 |
Feirense
|
7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -2 | 8 |
| 10 |
Chaves
|
7 | 2 | 1 | 4 | -2 | 7 |
| 11 |
Vitoria Setubal
|
6 | 1 | 3 | 2 | +0 | 6 |
| 12 |
Boavista
|
6 | 2 | 0 | 4 | -2 | 6 |
| 13 |
Pacos Ferreira
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
| 14 |
Portimonense
|
7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 15 |
Estoril
|
7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -6 | 6 |
| 16 |
Moreirense
|
7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -7 | 6 |
| 17 |
Tondela
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -2 | 5 |
| 18 |
Aves
|
7 | 1 | 2 | 4 | -5 | 5 |
Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.
Gonçalo Paciência
F
Coach: José Couceiro
Coach: Jorge Simão
Green columns are the outcomes that came in.
Pacos Ferreira
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
Sp Braga
Belenenses
Vitoria Setubal
Vitoria Setubal
Chaves
Sp Lisbon
Vitoria Setubal
Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida · 167 kamper i vår database
🟥 Red cards: 0,30 per match
The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.