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Primeira Liga

Referee: Manuel Oliveira

Belenenses

U T T S T

1–1

Full-time

Vitoria Setubal

T S U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Vitoria Setubal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,0

Scored

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

This season — Primeira Liga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 17%

33%

Points per game

1,0

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

67%

Average goals

2,3

1,7

Scored

0,3

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-1,7

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

48% Possession 52%

12 Shots 15

4 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 3

4 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

0 Offside 1

23 Free kicks against 16

3 Yellow cards 2

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 10. · Vitoria Setubal 12. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	3	3	0	0	+8	9
2	Porto	3	3	0	0	+8	9
3	Sp Lisbon	3	3	0	0	+8	9
4	Rio Ave	3	3	0	0	+4	9
5	Sp Braga	3	2	0	1	+1	6
6	Maritimo	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Estoril	3	2	0	1	+0	6
8	Feirense	3	1	2	0	+1	5
9	Portimonense	3	1	0	2	-2	3
10	Belenenses	3	1	0	2	-5	3
11	Guimaraes	3	1	0	2	-7	3
12	Vitoria Setubal	3	0	2	1	-1	2
13	Moreirense	3	0	2	1	-3	2
14	Pacos Ferreira	3	0	1	2	-2	1
15	Tondela	3	0	1	2	-2	1
16	Chaves	3	0	1	2	-2	1
17	Aves	3	0	1	2	-4	1
18	Boavista	3	0	0	3	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Porto	2	2	0	0	+7	6
3	Rio Ave	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Maritimo	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Feirense	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Estoril	1	1	0	0	+3	3
7	Portimonense	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Sp Braga	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Belenenses	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Sp Lisbon	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Guimaraes	2	1	0	1	-4	3
12	Vitoria Setubal	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Pacos Ferreira	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Moreirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Boavista	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Chaves	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Tondela	2	0	0	2	-2	0
18	Aves	2	0	0	2	-4	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	Rio Ave	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Porto	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Benfica	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Sp Braga	2	1	0	1	+0	3
6	Estoril	2	1	0	1	-3	3
7	Aves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	Tondela	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Feirense	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Chaves	2	0	1	1	-1	1
11	Moreirense	2	0	1	1	-3	1
12	Maritimo	1	0	0	1	-1	0
13	Vitoria Setubal	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Boavista	2	0	0	2	-2	0
15	Pacos Ferreira	2	0	0	2	-2	0
16	Portimonense	2	0	0	2	-3	0
17	Guimaraes	1	0	0	1	-3	0
18	Belenenses	2	0	0	2	-6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.