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Primeira Liga

Referee: Fabio Jose Costa Verissimo

Vitoria Setubal

T T U U U

1–1

Full-time

Sp Lisbon

S S U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Vitoria Setubal Sp Lisbon

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

83%

Points per game

0,5

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,2

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,5

Conceded

2,2

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+2,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 18/18 matches

Win Ø 45%

11%

78%

Points per game

0,7

2,6

Over 2.5 Ø 47%

44%

50%

Both score Ø 53%

61%

44%

Average goals

2,9

2,8

Scored

1,0

2,3

Conceded

1,9

0,6

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+1,7

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

32% Possession 68%

4 Shots 15

1 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 4

3 Goalkeeper saves 0

0 Corners 8

2 Offside 2

18 Free kicks against 20

4 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Vitoria Setubal 17. · Sp Lisbon 1. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	18	14	4	0	+31	46
2	Porto	17	14	3	0	+36	45
3	Benfica	18	13	4	1	+31	43
4	Sp Braga	18	12	1	5	+17	37
5	Rio Ave	18	9	3	6	+7	30
6	Maritimo	18	8	4	6	-3	28
7	Chaves	18	7	5	6	-1	26
8	Boavista	18	7	3	8	-2	24
9	Guimaraes	18	7	2	9	-9	23
10	Tondela	18	6	4	8	-5	22
11	Belenenses	18	5	4	9	-9	19
12	Portimonense	18	4	6	8	-6	18
13	Feirense	18	5	2	11	-8	17
14	Moreirense	18	3	6	9	-14	15
15	Pacos Ferreira	18	3	6	9	-15	15
16	Aves	18	3	5	10	-13	14
17	Vitoria Setubal	18	2	7	9	-16	13
18	Estoril	17	3	3	11	-21	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	10	8	2	0	+19	26
2	Porto	9	8	1	0	+24	25
3	Sp Braga	10	8	0	2	+16	24
4	Benfica	8	7	1	0	+19	22
5	Maritimo	9	6	2	1	+6	20
6	Rio Ave	9	5	1	3	+4	16
7	Belenenses	9	4	3	2	+4	15
8	Boavista	9	5	0	4	-2	15
9	Portimonense	8	4	2	2	+5	14
10	Chaves	9	3	4	2	+3	13
11	Pacos Ferreira	9	3	4	2	+1	13
12	Guimaraes	8	4	1	3	-4	13
13	Tondela	10	3	2	5	-4	11
14	Vitoria Setubal	9	2	4	3	-3	10
15	Feirense	9	3	1	5	-4	10
16	Moreirense	9	1	5	3	-5	8
17	Estoril	8	2	1	5	-7	7
18	Aves	9	1	2	6	-9	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	10	6	3	1	+12	21
2	Sp Lisbon	8	6	2	0	+12	20
3	Porto	8	6	2	0	+12	20
4	Rio Ave	9	4	2	3	+3	14
5	Sp Braga	8	4	1	3	+1	13
6	Chaves	9	4	1	4	-4	13
7	Tondela	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Guimaraes	10	3	1	6	-5	10
9	Boavista	9	2	3	4	+0	9
10	Aves	9	2	3	4	-4	9
11	Maritimo	9	2	2	5	-9	8
12	Feirense	9	2	1	6	-4	7
13	Moreirense	9	2	1	6	-9	7
14	Estoril	9	1	2	6	-14	5
15	Portimonense	10	0	4	6	-11	4
16	Belenenses	9	1	1	7	-13	4
17	Vitoria Setubal	9	0	3	6	-13	3
18	Pacos Ferreira	9	0	2	7	-16	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.