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Primeira Liga

Referee: Artur Soares Dias

Belenenses

S S U S T

1–0

Full-time

Guimaraes

S S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Belenenses Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

3,3

2,0

Scored

2,0

1,3

Conceded

1,3

0,7

Goal diff per game

+0,7

This season — Primeira Liga · 15/15 matches

Win Ø 40%

33%

47%

Points per game

1,5

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 37%

40%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

47%

53%

Average goals

2,3

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,4

Conceded

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,2

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

39% Possession 61%

5 Shots 16

4 Shots on target 2

0 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 5

4 Offside 1

16 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Belenenses 8. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	15	13	0	2	+22	39
2	Sp Lisbon	15	11	1	3	+16	34
3	Sp Braga	15	10	3	2	+14	33
4	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+16	32
5	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+5	25
6	Moreirense	15	8	1	6	-3	25
7	Portimonense	16	7	2	7	-4	23
8	Belenenses	15	5	7	3	+3	22
9	Santa Clara	15	6	2	7	+1	20
10	Rio Ave	15	5	4	6	-1	19
11	Nacional	15	5	4	6	-8	19
12	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	2	8	-3	17
13	Boavista	15	4	4	7	-5	16
14	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-4	15
15	Maritimo	16	4	2	10	-11	14
16	Aves	15	3	2	10	-12	11
17	Feirense	15	2	5	8	-13	11
18	Chaves	15	2	2	11	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Lisbon	8	8	0	0	+15	24
2	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
3	Porto	8	7	0	1	+15	21
4	Portimonense	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+2	13
9	Belenenses	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Boavista	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Maritimo	8	3	1	4	-3	10
12	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-5	10
13	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	0	4	+0	9
14	Aves	8	2	2	4	+0	8
15	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-2	8
16	Feirense	7	1	4	2	-1	7
17	Santa Clara	8	2	1	5	-3	7
18	Chaves	7	1	2	4	-2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+7	18
2	Benfica	8	5	1	2	+6	16
3	Santa Clara	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Moreirense	8	4	0	4	-5	12
5	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	+1	11
6	Belenenses	8	2	5	1	+1	11
7	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	7	3	1	3	+1	10
9	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-3	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Boavista	8	1	3	4	-5	6
13	Portimonense	8	2	0	6	-10	6
14	Rio Ave	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Maritimo	8	1	1	6	-8	4
16	Feirense	8	1	1	6	-12	4
17	Chaves	8	1	0	7	-11	3
18	Aves	7	1	0	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.