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Primeira Liga

Referee: Nuno Miguel Serrano Almeida

Guimaraes

S U U S S

3–2

Full-time

Rio Ave

U S U T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Guimaraes Rio Ave

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

2,0

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

17%

67%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

1,8

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,5

1,7

Goal diff per game

+0,8

-0,2

This season — Primeira Liga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 45%

45%

Points per game

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

36%

64%

Both score Ø 69%

55%

82%

Average goals

2,5

3,1

Scored

1,5

1,6

Conceded

1,1

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,4

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

41% Possession 59%

13 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 7

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 7

1 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 15

4 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Guimaraes 5. · Rio Ave 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	0	2	+19	30
2	Sp Braga	12	8	3	1	+12	27
3	Benfica	12	8	2	2	+13	26
4	Sp Lisbon	11	8	1	2	+10	25
5	Guimaraes	11	5	3	3	+4	18
6	Rio Ave	11	5	3	3	+2	18
7	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
8	Vitoria Setubal	12	5	2	5	+2	17
9	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+1	17
10	Moreirense	12	5	1	6	-6	16
11	Portimonense	12	4	2	6	-8	14
12	Nacional	12	3	4	5	-8	13
13	Aves	11	3	1	7	-5	10
14	Boavista	12	2	4	6	-7	10
15	Maritimo	11	3	1	7	-8	10
16	Tondela	12	2	3	7	-4	9
17	Feirense	11	2	3	6	-8	9
18	Chaves	12	2	1	9	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	7	6	0	1	+14	18
2	Sp Braga	6	5	1	0	+8	16
3	Sp Lisbon	5	5	0	0	+8	15
4	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
5	Rio Ave	6	4	1	1	+3	13
6	Portimonense	6	3	2	1	+2	11
7	Moreirense	6	3	1	2	+1	10
8	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	0	3	+2	9
9	Guimaraes	5	2	2	1	+2	8
10	Belenenses	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Aves	6	2	1	3	+1	7
12	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	-1	7
13	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
14	Feirense	5	1	3	1	+0	6
15	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-3	5
16	Chaves	5	1	1	3	-1	4
17	Boavista	5	1	1	3	-3	4
18	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Santa Clara	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Belenenses	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Vitoria Setubal	6	2	2	2	+0	8
10	Boavista	7	1	3	3	-4	6
11	Moreirense	6	2	0	4	-7	6
12	Rio Ave	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Tondela	5	1	1	3	-1	4
14	Maritimo	5	1	0	4	-5	3
15	Aves	5	1	0	4	-6	3
16	Feirense	6	1	0	5	-8	3
17	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
18	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-10	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.