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Primeira Liga

Referee: Joao Carlos Santos Capela

Sp Lisbon

S S S S T

2–1

Full-time

Belenenses

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Sp Lisbon Belenenses

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

83%

50%

Points per game

2,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

83%

50%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

3,8

3,2

Scored

2,7

2,0

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+1,5

+0,8

This season — Primeira Liga · 14/14 matches

Win Ø 54%

71%

36%

Points per game

2,2

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

64%

36%

Both score Ø 54%

64%

43%

Average goals

3,2

2,3

Scored

2,1

1,3

Conceded

1,1

1,0

Goal diff per game

+1,1

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

55% Possession 45%

13 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 3

4 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

20 Free kicks against 15

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Sp Lisbon 4. · Belenenses 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	14	12	0	2	+21	36
2	Sp Braga	15	10	3	2	+14	33
3	Benfica	15	10	2	3	+16	32
4	Sp Lisbon	14	10	1	3	+15	31
5	Guimaraes	15	7	4	4	+5	25
6	Moreirense	15	8	1	6	-3	25
7	Portimonense	15	7	2	6	-3	23
8	Belenenses	14	5	7	2	+4	22
9	Santa Clara	15	6	2	7	+1	20
10	Rio Ave	15	5	4	6	-1	19
11	Nacional	15	5	4	6	-8	19
12	Vitoria Setubal	15	5	2	8	-3	17
13	Boavista	15	4	4	7	-5	16
14	Tondela	15	4	3	8	-4	15
15	Aves	14	3	2	9	-11	11
16	Maritimo	15	3	2	10	-12	11
17	Feirense	15	2	5	8	-13	11
18	Chaves	15	2	2	11	-13	8

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	8	7	1	0	+14	22
2	Porto	8	7	0	1	+15	21
3	Sp Lisbon	7	7	0	0	+14	21
4	Portimonense	8	5	2	1	+6	17
5	Benfica	7	5	1	1	+10	16
6	Guimaraes	7	4	2	1	+4	14
7	Rio Ave	8	4	2	2	+2	14
8	Moreirense	7	4	1	2	+2	13
9	Belenenses	7	3	2	2	+2	11
10	Boavista	7	3	1	3	+0	10
11	Nacional	8	3	1	4	-5	10
12	Vitoria Setubal	7	3	0	4	+0	9
13	Aves	7	2	2	3	+1	8
14	Tondela	8	2	2	4	-2	8
15	Feirense	7	1	4	2	-1	7
16	Santa Clara	8	2	1	5	-3	7
17	Maritimo	7	2	1	4	-4	7
18	Chaves	7	1	2	4	-2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	8	5	1	2	+6	16
2	Porto	6	5	0	1	+6	15
3	Santa Clara	7	4	1	2	+4	13
4	Moreirense	8	4	0	4	-5	12
5	Belenenses	7	2	5	0	+2	11
6	Guimaraes	8	3	2	3	+1	11
7	Sp Braga	7	3	2	2	+0	11
8	Sp Lisbon	7	3	1	3	+1	10
9	Nacional	7	2	3	2	-3	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	8	2	2	4	-3	8
11	Tondela	7	2	1	4	-2	7
12	Boavista	8	1	3	4	-5	6
13	Portimonense	7	2	0	5	-9	6
14	Rio Ave	7	1	2	4	-3	5
15	Maritimo	8	1	1	6	-8	4
16	Feirense	8	1	1	6	-12	4
17	Chaves	8	1	0	7	-11	3
18	Aves	7	1	0	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.