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Primeira Liga

Referee: Carlos Xistra

Aves

T S S T T

1–1

Full-time

Guimaraes

U U S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Aves Guimaraes

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,3

Over 2.5 Ø 58%

83%

33%

Both score Ø 67%

83%

50%

Average goals

3,3

2,3

Scored

1,3

1,7

Conceded

2,0

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+1,0

This season — Primeira Liga · 12/12 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

67%

42%

Both score Ø 58%

58%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,6

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

46% Possession 54%

15 Shots 13

5 Shots on target 6

4 Blocked shots 3

5 Goalkeeper saves 4

10 Corners 5

20 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Aves 15. · Guimaraes 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Porto	12	10	0	2	+19	30
2	Sp Braga	13	9	3	1	+16	30
3	Sp Lisbon	12	9	1	2	+13	28
4	Benfica	12	8	2	2	+13	26
5	Guimaraes	12	6	3	3	+5	21
6	Moreirense	13	6	1	6	-5	19
7	Rio Ave	12	5	3	4	+1	18
8	Belenenses	12	4	6	2	+1	18
9	Santa Clara	12	5	2	5	+1	17
10	Vitoria Setubal	13	5	2	6	+0	17
11	Portimonense	13	5	2	6	-6	17
12	Boavista	13	3	4	6	-5	13
13	Nacional	12	3	4	5	-8	13
14	Maritimo	12	3	2	7	-8	11
15	Aves	12	3	1	8	-8	10
16	Feirense	13	2	4	7	-12	10
17	Tondela	13	2	3	8	-6	9
18	Chaves	13	2	1	10	-11	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sp Braga	7	6	1	0	+12	19
2	Porto	7	6	0	1	+14	18
3	Sp Lisbon	6	6	0	0	+11	18
4	Portimonense	7	4	2	1	+4	14
5	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+6	13
6	Rio Ave	6	4	1	1	+3	13
7	Guimaraes	6	3	2	1	+3	11
8	Moreirense	6	3	1	2	+1	10
9	Vitoria Setubal	6	3	0	3	+2	9
10	Belenenses	6	2	2	2	-1	8
11	Aves	6	2	1	3	+1	7
12	Feirense	6	1	4	1	+0	7
13	Santa Clara	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Boavista	6	2	1	3	-1	7
15	Maritimo	6	2	1	3	-3	7
16	Tondela	7	1	2	4	-3	5
17	Chaves	6	1	1	4	-2	4
18	Nacional	6	1	1	4	-8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Benfica	6	4	1	1	+7	13
2	Porto	5	4	0	1	+5	12
3	Sp Braga	6	3	2	1	+4	11
4	Sp Lisbon	6	3	1	2	+2	10
5	Guimaraes	6	3	1	2	+2	10
6	Santa Clara	6	3	1	2	+2	10
7	Belenenses	6	2	4	0	+2	10
8	Nacional	6	2	3	1	+0	9
9	Moreirense	7	3	0	4	-6	9
10	Vitoria Setubal	7	2	2	3	-2	8
11	Boavista	7	1	3	3	-4	6
12	Rio Ave	6	1	2	3	-2	5
13	Tondela	6	1	1	4	-3	4
14	Maritimo	6	1	1	4	-5	4
15	Chaves	7	1	0	6	-9	3
16	Aves	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Portimonense	6	1	0	5	-10	3
18	Feirense	7	1	0	6	-12	3

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.