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Premier League
Referee: D England
Man City
U U S S S
1–0
Full-time
Brighton
U U U T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
67%
0%
Points per game
2,3
0,7
Over 2.5 Ø 34%
17%
50%
Both score Ø 42%
33%
50%
Average goals
1,8
2,7
Scored
1,5
1,0
Conceded
0,3
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,2
-0,7
This season — Premier League · 15/17 matches
Win Ø 33%
53%
12%
Points per game
1,9
0,8
Over 2.5 Ø 43%
27%
59%
Both score Ø 59%
47%
71%
Average goals
2,5
2,9
Scored
1,6
1,2
Conceded
0,9
1,6
Goal diff per game
+0,7
-0,4
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

65% Possession 35%
16 Shots 5
6 Shots on target 1
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 5
8 Corners 4
2 Offside 2
4 Free kicks against 12
0 Yellow cards 2
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Man City 6. · Brighton 17.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Man United 17 11 3 3 +10 36
2 Liverpool 17 9 6 2 +16 33
3 Leicester 17 10 2 5 +10 32
4 Everton 17 10 2 5 +7 32
5 Tottenham 16 8 5 3 +14 29
6 Man City 15 8 5 2 +11 29
7 Southampton 17 8 5 4 +7 29
8 Aston Villa 15 8 2 5 +13 26
9 Chelsea 17 7 5 5 +11 26
10 West Ham 17 7 5 5 +3 26
11 Arsenal 17 7 2 8 +1 23
12 Leeds 17 7 2 8 -3 23
13 Crystal Palace 17 6 4 7 -7 22
14 Wolves 18 6 4 8 -7 22
15 Newcastle 17 5 4 8 -9 19
16 Burnley 16 4 4 8 -12 16
17 Brighton 17 2 8 7 -7 14
18 Fulham 15 2 5 8 -10 11
19 West Brom 17 1 5 11 -28 8
20 Sheffield United 18 1 2 15 -20 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Man City Brighton
1–0 P. Foden
K. De Bruyne
44′
Half-time 1–0
62′
🟨 Joël Veltman
Gabriel Jesus 🔁
↦ R. Mahrez
67′
68′
🔁 S. March
↦ D. Pröpper
68′
🔁 N. Maupay
↦ P. Tau
77′
🟨 Adam Webster
R. Sterling 🔁
↦ P. Foden
82′
86′
🔁 R. Khadra
↦ L. Trossard
Full-time 1–0

Line-ups

Man City

4-3-3
31 Ederson Moraes G
27 João Cancelo D
5 J. Stones D
3 Rúben Dias D
8 İ. Gündoğan M
17 K. De Bruyne M
11 O. Zinchenko D
20 Bernardo Silva F
16 Rodri M
47 P. Foden F
26 R. Mahrez F
Bench (9)
9 Gabriel Jesus
7 R. Sterling
22 B. Mendy
2 K. Walker
13 Z. Steffen
21 Ferran Torres
25 Fernandinho
79 L. Mbete-Tatu
78 T. Harwood-Bellis

Coach: Guardiola

Brighton

4-3-1-2
26 Robert Sanchez G
4 A. Webster D
34 J. Veltman D
33 D. Burn D
5 L. Dunk D
30 Bernardo M
3 B. White M
24 D. Pröpper M
10 A. Mac Allister M
11 L. Trossard F
22 P. Tau F
Bench (9)
20 S. March
9 N. Maupay
67 R. Khadra
31 C. Walton
47 T. Jenks
13 P. Groß
41 M. Sanders
54 J. Weir
29 A. Zeqiri

Coach: G. Potter

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
1,18
U
7,48
B
15,78
Over/under goals
U1,5 ✓
O2,5
1,48
U2,5 ✓
2,64
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

D England · 172 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,9 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,5 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,11 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.