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Premier League

Referee: Jonathan Moss

Man City

S S S U S

4–0

Full-time

Brighton

U T S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Man City Brighton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

83%

17%

Points per game

2,7

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

3,3

2,7

Scored

2,7

1,2

Conceded

0,7

1,5

Goal diff per game

+2,0

-0,3

This season — Premier League · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

67%

33%

Points per game

2,3

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

100%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

4,3

2,3

Scored

3,3

1,3

Conceded

1,0

Goal diff per game

+2,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

53% Possession 47%

15 Shots 6

6 Shots on target 2

1 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

8 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

10 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Man City 2. · Brighton 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	3	3	0	0	+6	9
2	Man City	3	2	1	0	+7	7
3	Arsenal	3	2	0	1	+0	6
4	Man United	4	1	2	1	+3	5
5	Leicester	3	1	2	0	+1	5
6	Burnley	3	1	1	1	+2	4
7	Tottenham	3	1	1	1	+1	4
8	Brighton	3	1	1	1	+1	4
9	Sheffield United	3	1	1	1	+0	4
10	Crystal Palace	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Bournemouth	3	1	1	1	-1	4
12	Everton	3	1	1	1	-1	4
13	Southampton	4	1	1	2	-2	4
14	Chelsea	3	1	1	1	-3	4
15	West Ham	3	1	1	1	-3	4
16	Wolves	3	0	3	0	+0	3
17	Aston Villa	3	1	0	2	-1	3
18	Norwich	3	1	0	2	-2	3
19	Newcastle	3	1	0	2	-2	3
20	Watford	3	0	0	3	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	2	2	0	0	+5	6
2	Man United	2	1	0	1	+3	3
3	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+3	3
4	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+1	3
5	Tottenham	2	1	0	1	+1	3
6	Aston Villa	2	1	0	1	+1	3
7	Arsenal	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Everton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Wolves	2	0	2	0	+0	2
11	Man City	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Chelsea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Crystal Palace	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Leicester	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Southampton	2	0	1	1	-1	1
16	Bournemouth	2	0	1	1	-2	1
17	Brighton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Newcastle	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Watford	2	0	0	2	-5	0
20	West Ham	1	0	0	1	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	2	2	0	0	+7	6
2	West Ham	2	1	1	0	+2	4
3	Leicester	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Brighton	1	1	0	0	+3	3
5	Liverpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Crystal Palace	2	1	0	1	+0	3
8	Arsenal	2	1	0	1	-1	3
9	Newcastle	2	1	0	1	-1	3
10	Southampton	2	1	0	1	-1	3
11	Chelsea	2	1	0	1	-3	3
12	Man United	2	0	2	0	+0	2
13	Tottenham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Sheffield United	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Wolves	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Burnley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Everton	2	0	1	1	-2	1
18	Watford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Aston Villa	1	0	0	1	-2	0
20	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-3	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.