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Eredivisie
Referee: S Gözübüyük
PSV Eindhoven
U S S S U
1–3
Full-time
AZ Alkmaar
S S S U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 59%
67%
50%
Points per game
2,3
1,8
Over 2.5 Ø 83%
83%
83%
Both score Ø 92%
83%
100%
Average goals
3,7
4,2
Scored
2,5
2,5
Conceded
1,2
1,7
Goal diff per game
+1,3
+0,8
This season — Eredivisie · 15/15 matches
Win Ø 57%
67%
47%
Points per game
2,3
1,9
Over 2.5 Ø 77%
73%
80%
Both score Ø 74%
67%
80%
Average goals
3,2
3,9
Scored
2,3
2,4
Conceded
0,9
1,5
Goal diff per game
+1,5
+0,9
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

60% Possession 40%
14 Shots 6
3 Shots on target 4
6 Blocked shots 1
1 Goalkeeper saves 2
7 Corners 3
1 Offside 1
12 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 3
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match PSV Eindhoven 3. · AZ Alkmaar 5.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Ajax 15 11 2 2 +42 35
2 Vitesse 16 11 2 3 +15 35
3 PSV Eindhoven 15 10 4 1 +22 34
4 Feyenoord 13 9 3 1 +19 30
5 AZ Alkmaar 15 7 7 1 +13 28
6 Twente 15 8 3 4 +11 27
7 Groningen 14 8 2 4 +3 26
8 Heerenveen 15 5 5 5 -1 20
9 Heracles 16 5 3 8 -7 18
10 Sparta Rotterdam 14 5 2 7 -1 17
11 Zwolle 15 3 8 4 -6 17
12 Utrecht 14 3 7 4 -4 16
13 For Sittard 15 4 4 7 -10 16
14 Waalwijk 15 3 3 9 -14 12
15 VVV Venlo 15 3 3 9 -21 12
16 Den Haag 15 2 4 9 -21 10
17 Willem II 15 2 3 10 -15 9
18 FC Emmen 16 0 5 11 -25 5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

PSV Eindhoven AZ Alkmaar
Pablo Rosario 🟨
26′
31′
T. Koopmeiners 0–1
39′
T. Koopmeiners 0–2
J. Karlsson
Half-time 0–2
Mauro Júnior 🔁
↦ R. Thomas
46′
Denzel Dumfries 🟨
56′
58′
🟨 Pantelis Hatzidiakos
1–2 P. Max
59′
68′
🟨 Bruno Martins Indi
Ibrahim Sangaré 🟨
69′
73′
🔁 T. Reijnders
↦ J. Karlsson
77′
🟨 Owen Wijndal
83′
🔁 Z. Aboukhlal
↦ M. Boadu
M. van Ginkel 🔁
↦ D. Malen
87′
J. Piroe 🔁
↦ M. Ihattaren
87′
90′
C. Stengs 1–3
T. Koopmeiners
Full-time 1–3

Line-ups

PSV Eindhoven

4-2-2-2
38 Y. Mvogo G
31 P. Max D
28 O. Boscagli D
22 D. Dumfries D
33 J. Teze D
30 R. Thomas M
6 I. Sangaré M
18 P. Rosario M
10 M. Ihattaren M
7 E. Zahavi F
9 D. Malen F
Bench (8)
17 Mauro Júnior
14 M. van Ginkel
29 J. Piroe
5 T. Baumgartl
21 M. Delanghe
13 L. Unnerstall
15 É. Gutiérrez
11 A. Fein

Coach: R. Schmidt

AZ Alkmaar

4-3-3
1 M. Bizot G
15 B. Martins Indi D
3 P. Chatzidiakos D
5 O. Wijndal D
26 Y. Sugawara D
6 F. Midtsjø M
8 T. Koopmeiners M
28 A. Guðmundsson F
11 J. Karlsson F
9 M. Boadu F
7 C. Stengs M
Bench (10)
24 T. Reijnders
17 Z. Aboukhlal
20 J. Clasie
18 H. Evjen
22 T. Letschert
16 H. Verhulst
40 M. Gullit
27 R. Leeuwin
30 M. Bakker
25 T. Oosting

Coach: P. Jansen

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H
1,82
U
3,96
B ✓
3,88
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5 ✓
1,51
U2,5
2,50
O3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja ✓
BLS nei

Referee

S Gözübüyük · 171 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
3,8 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
22,9 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,16 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.