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Premier League

Referee: K Friend

Southampton

T U U S T

1–3

Full-time

Arsenal

S S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 34%

67%

Both score Ø 25%

17%

33%

Average goals

1,0

2,5

Scored

0,3

2,0

Conceded

0,7

0,5

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+1,5

This season — Premier League · 18/19 matches

Win Ø 43%

44%

42%

Points per game

1,6

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

33%

53%

Both score Ø 38%

39%

37%

Average goals

2,6

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–2

58% Possession 42%

13 Shots 9

5 Shots on target 5

3 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

11 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 10. · Arsenal 11. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	19	12	4	3	+11	40
2	Man City	18	11	5	2	+18	38
3	Leicester	19	12	2	5	+14	38
4	West Ham	20	10	5	5	+6	35
5	Liverpool	19	9	7	3	+15	34
6	Tottenham	18	9	6	3	+16	33
7	Everton	17	10	2	5	+7	32
8	Aston Villa	17	9	2	6	+13	29
9	Chelsea	19	8	5	6	+10	29
10	Southampton	18	8	5	5	+5	29
11	Arsenal	19	8	3	8	+4	27
12	Leeds	19	8	2	9	-3	26
13	Crystal Palace	20	6	5	9	-12	23
14	Wolves	19	6	4	9	-8	22
15	Burnley	18	5	4	9	-12	19
16	Newcastle	20	5	4	11	-15	19
17	Brighton	19	3	8	8	-7	17
18	Fulham	18	2	6	10	-12	12
19	West Brom	19	2	5	12	-28	11
20	Sheffield United	19	1	2	16	-22	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	10	7	2	1	+14	23
2	Liverpool	10	7	2	1	+12	23
3	West Ham	10	5	3	2	+4	18
4	Southampton	9	5	1	3	+5	16
5	Leicester	10	5	1	4	+3	16
6	Chelsea	9	4	3	2	+8	15
7	Tottenham	9	4	3	2	+5	15
8	Arsenal	10	4	2	4	+1	14
9	Man United	9	4	2	3	-1	14
10	Aston Villa	8	4	1	3	+6	13
11	Everton	8	4	1	3	+3	13
12	Wolves	10	3	3	4	-1	12
13	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-5	12
14	Leeds	9	3	2	4	-1	11
15	Newcastle	10	3	2	5	-6	11
16	Burnley	8	3	1	4	-3	10
17	Fulham	10	1	3	6	-8	6
18	Brighton	9	0	5	4	-5	5
19	West Brom	9	1	2	6	-19	5
20	Sheffield United	10	1	1	8	-9	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	10	8	2	0	+12	26
2	Leicester	9	7	1	1	+11	22
3	Everton	9	6	1	2	+4	19
4	Tottenham	9	5	3	1	+11	18
5	West Ham	10	5	2	3	+2	17
6	Aston Villa	9	5	1	3	+7	16
7	Man City	8	4	3	1	+4	15
8	Leeds	10	5	0	5	-2	15
9	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+2	14
10	Arsenal	9	4	1	4	+3	13
11	Southampton	9	3	4	2	+0	13
12	Brighton	10	3	3	4	-2	12
13	Liverpool	9	2	5	2	+3	11
14	Crystal Palace	10	3	2	5	-7	11
15	Wolves	9	3	1	5	-7	10
16	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-9	9
17	Newcastle	10	2	2	6	-9	8
18	Fulham	8	1	3	4	-4	6
19	West Brom	10	1	3	6	-9	6
20	Sheffield United	9	0	1	8	-13	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.