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Premier League

Referee: Chris Kavanagh

Southampton

U T U T T

3–2

Full-time

Arsenal

U S S U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Arsenal

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

50%

Points per game

0,3

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 83%

83%

Average goals

3,8

3,0

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

2,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 16/16 matches

Win Ø 35%

63%

Points per game

0,6

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

56%

63%

Both score Ø 63%

50%

75%

Average goals

2,7

3,4

Scored

0,8

2,2

Conceded

1,9

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,1

+0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

33% Possession 67%

12 Shots 13

7 Shots on target 4

4 Blocked shots 5

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 5

2 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 10

3 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 19. · Arsenal 5. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	17	14	2	1	+38	44
2	Liverpool	16	13	3	0	+28	42
3	Tottenham	17	13	0	4	+15	39
4	Chelsea	16	10	4	2	+20	34
5	Arsenal	16	10	4	2	+15	34
6	Man United	16	7	5	4	+2	26
7	Wolves	17	7	4	6	+0	25
8	Everton	17	6	6	5	+2	24
9	West Ham	17	7	3	7	+0	24
10	Watford	17	7	3	7	-2	24
11	Bournemouth	17	7	2	8	-3	23
12	Leicester	17	6	4	7	+0	22
13	Brighton	16	6	3	7	-3	21
14	Newcastle	17	4	4	9	-8	16
15	Crystal Palace	17	4	3	10	-9	15
16	Cardiff	17	4	2	11	-16	14
17	Burnley	17	3	3	11	-18	12
18	Huddersfield	17	2	4	11	-18	10
19	Southampton	16	1	6	9	-17	9
20	Fulham	17	2	3	12	-26	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	9	0	0	+27	27
2	Chelsea	9	6	3	0	+12	21
3	Arsenal	9	6	2	1	+9	20
4	Liverpool	7	6	1	0	+14	19
5	Everton	9	5	3	1	+7	18
6	Tottenham	7	5	0	2	+6	15
7	Man United	8	4	3	1	+3	15
8	Watford	9	5	0	4	-1	15
9	Brighton	7	4	2	1	+4	14
10	Wolves	9	4	2	3	+1	14
11	Bournemouth	9	4	2	3	+0	14
12	West Ham	9	4	1	4	+0	13
13	Cardiff	9	4	1	4	-3	13
14	Leicester	8	3	2	3	+2	11
15	Crystal Palace	8	2	2	4	-3	8
16	Fulham	8	2	2	4	-8	8
17	Burnley	8	2	1	5	-6	7
18	Newcastle	9	2	0	7	-8	6
19	Southampton	7	0	5	2	-4	5
20	Huddersfield	9	1	2	6	-8	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Tottenham	10	8	0	2	+9	24
2	Liverpool	9	7	2	0	+14	23
3	Man City	8	5	2	1	+11	17
4	Arsenal	7	4	2	1	+6	14
5	Chelsea	7	4	1	2	+8	13
6	West Ham	8	3	2	3	+0	11
7	Man United	8	3	2	3	-1	11
8	Wolves	8	3	2	3	-1	11
9	Leicester	9	3	2	4	-2	11
10	Newcastle	8	2	4	2	+0	10
11	Watford	8	2	3	3	-1	9
12	Bournemouth	8	3	0	5	-3	9
13	Crystal Palace	9	2	1	6	-6	7
14	Brighton	9	2	1	6	-7	7
15	Everton	8	1	3	4	-5	6
16	Huddersfield	8	1	2	5	-10	5
17	Burnley	9	1	2	6	-12	5
18	Southampton	9	1	1	7	-13	4
19	Cardiff	8	0	1	7	-13	1
20	Fulham	9	0	1	8	-18	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.