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Championship

Referee: S Martin

Millwall

S S T U S

3–1

Full-time

Luton

T T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

2,3

3,2

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

2,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-1,2

This season — Championship · 25/25 matches

Win Ø 30%

36%

24%

Points per game

1,5

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 64%

44%

84%

Both score Ø 66%

68%

64%

Average goals

2,5

3,4

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

2,1

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,9

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

62% Possession 38%

20 Shots 6

7 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 2

3 Goalkeeper saves 4

5 Corners 1

0 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 13

0 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 9. · Luton 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Leeds	25	15	6	4	+22	51
2	West Brom	25	14	9	2	+20	51
3	Fulham	23	12	5	6	+12	41
4	Nott'm Forest	24	11	7	6	+8	40
5	Sheffield Weds	25	11	6	8	+12	39
6	Preston	25	11	6	8	+6	39
7	Swansea	23	10	8	5	+6	38
8	Bristol City	25	10	8	7	+3	38
9	Millwall	25	9	10	6	+0	37
10	Hull	25	10	6	9	+5	36
11	Cardiff	24	9	9	6	+3	36
12	Blackburn	25	10	6	9	+1	36
13	Reading	24	9	5	10	+4	32
14	QPR	25	9	5	11	-9	32
15	Brentford	22	9	4	9	+11	31
16	Middlesbrough	25	7	9	9	-8	30
17	Derby	25	7	9	9	-9	30
18	Birmingham	25	8	5	12	-11	29
19	Charlton	25	7	7	11	-2	28
20	Huddersfield	25	7	7	11	-9	28
21	Stoke	25	6	3	16	-12	21
22	Barnsley	25	4	9	12	-15	21
23	Luton	25	6	3	16	-22	21
24	Wigan	25	4	8	13	-16	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	13	9	2	2	+14	29
2	Fulham	13	8	2	3	+10	26
3	Leeds	12	7	4	1	+11	25
4	Cardiff	11	7	3	1	+9	24
5	West Brom	12	6	5	1	+11	23
6	Derby	13	6	5	2	+6	23
7	Blackburn	13	6	5	2	+5	23
8	Millwall	12	6	4	2	+5	22
9	Sheffield Weds	12	6	4	2	+5	22
10	Middlesbrough	13	6	4	3	+1	22
11	Hull	13	6	2	5	+5	20
12	Bristol City	12	5	4	3	+5	19
13	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+11	18
14	Swansea	12	5	3	4	+4	18
15	Charlton	13	5	3	5	+2	18
16	Reading	12	6	0	6	+2	18
17	Birmingham	12	5	2	5	+0	17
18	Nott'm Forest	11	5	2	4	+0	17
19	Huddersfield	13	4	4	5	-2	16
20	Wigan	12	4	4	4	-3	16
21	QPR	13	4	4	5	-4	16
22	Luton	12	4	3	5	-1	15
23	Barnsley	13	3	6	4	-3	15
24	Stoke	13	4	2	7	-3	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	13	8	4	1	+9	28
2	Leeds	13	8	2	3	+11	26
3	Nott'm Forest	13	6	5	2	+8	23
4	Swansea	11	5	5	1	+2	20
5	Bristol City	13	5	4	4	-2	19
6	Sheffield Weds	13	5	2	6	+7	17
7	Hull	12	4	4	4	+0	16
8	QPR	12	5	1	6	-5	16
9	Fulham	10	4	3	3	+2	15
10	Millwall	13	3	6	4	-5	15
11	Reading	12	3	5	4	+2	14
12	Brentford	12	4	1	7	+0	13
13	Blackburn	12	4	1	7	-4	13
14	Cardiff	13	2	6	5	-6	12
15	Huddersfield	12	3	3	6	-7	12
16	Birmingham	13	3	3	7	-11	12
17	Charlton	12	2	4	6	-4	10
18	Preston	12	2	4	6	-8	10
19	Middlesbrough	12	1	5	6	-9	8
20	Stoke	12	2	1	9	-9	7
21	Derby	12	1	4	7	-15	7
22	Barnsley	12	1	3	8	-12	6
23	Luton	13	2	0	11	-21	6
24	Wigan	13	0	4	9	-13	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.