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Premier League

Referee: Mike Dean

Southampton

T T S S U

1–0

Full-time

Tottenham

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Southampton Tottenham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

67%

Average goals

2,5

3,3

Scored

1,5

2,0

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,7

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 35%

30%

40%

Points per game

1,1

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 70%

65%

75%

Both score Ø 73%

70%

75%

Average goals

3,1

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,8

Conceded

1,9

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

12 Shots 11

3 Shots on target 5

5 Blocked shots 4

5 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 9

1 Offside 3

21 Free kicks against 8

3 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Southampton 15. · Tottenham 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	18	1	0	+33	55
2	Leicester	20	13	3	4	+24	42
3	Man City	20	13	2	5	+31	41
4	Chelsea	21	11	3	7	+7	36
5	Man United	20	8	7	5	+9	31
6	Tottenham	20	8	6	6	+7	30
7	Wolves	20	7	9	4	+4	30
8	Sheffield United	20	7	8	5	+4	29
9	Crystal Palace	20	7	6	7	-4	27
10	Everton	20	7	4	9	-7	25
11	Newcastle	20	7	4	9	-10	25
12	Arsenal	20	5	9	6	-4	24
13	Brighton	21	6	6	9	-4	24
14	Burnley	21	7	3	11	-10	24
15	Southampton	20	6	4	10	-14	22
16	Aston Villa	21	6	3	12	-10	21
17	Bournemouth	20	5	5	10	-8	20
18	West Ham	19	5	4	10	-11	19
19	Watford	20	3	7	10	-18	16
20	Norwich	20	3	4	13	-19	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	10	0	0	+18	30
2	Leicester	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Man City	10	7	1	2	+18	22
4	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+11	20
5	Man United	10	5	4	1	+10	19
6	Everton	10	5	2	3	+1	17
7	Brighton	11	4	4	3	+3	16
8	Wolves	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Newcastle	10	4	4	2	+2	16
10	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Burnley	11	5	0	6	-3	15
12	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+2	14
13	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-1	14
15	Arsenal	10	3	4	3	-2	13
16	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	Watford	10	2	4	4	-4	10
18	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-8	8
19	Southampton	10	2	2	6	-15	8
20	West Ham	9	2	1	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Chelsea	11	7	1	3	+6	22
3	Leicester	10	6	1	3	+14	19
4	Man City	10	6	1	3	+13	19
5	Sheffield United	10	3	6	1	+2	15
6	Wolves	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Man United	10	3	3	4	-1	12
9	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-4	12
10	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
11	Arsenal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
12	Tottenham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
13	Bournemouth	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	Newcastle	10	3	0	7	-12	9
16	Brighton	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Everton	10	2	2	6	-8	8
18	Aston Villa	11	2	1	8	-9	7
19	Watford	10	1	3	6	-14	6
20	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-11	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.