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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Burnley

T S S T T

1–2

Full-time

Aston Villa

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Burnley Aston Villa

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

33%

17%

Points per game

1,0

0,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

33%

67%

Both score Ø 34%

17%

50%

Average goals

2,5

3,0

Scored

0,5

0,7

Conceded

2,0

2,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 20/20 matches

Win Ø 30%

35%

25%

Points per game

1,2

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 63%

55%

70%

Both score Ø 48%

35%

60%

Average goals

2,8

3,1

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,6

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,6

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–2

61% Possession 39%

20 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 6

6 Blocked shots 2

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

12 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Burnley 13. · Aston Villa 18. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	19	18	1	0	+33	55
2	Leicester	20	13	3	4	+24	42
3	Man City	20	13	2	5	+31	41
4	Chelsea	20	11	2	7	+7	35
5	Man United	20	8	7	5	+9	31
6	Tottenham	20	8	6	6	+7	30
7	Wolves	20	7	9	4	+4	30
8	Sheffield United	20	7	8	5	+4	29
9	Crystal Palace	20	7	6	7	-4	27
10	Everton	20	7	4	9	-7	25
11	Newcastle	20	7	4	9	-10	25
12	Arsenal	20	5	9	6	-4	24
13	Burnley	20	7	3	10	-9	24
14	Brighton	20	6	5	9	-4	23
15	Southampton	20	6	4	10	-14	22
16	Bournemouth	20	5	5	10	-8	20
17	West Ham	19	5	4	10	-11	19
18	Aston Villa	20	5	3	12	-11	18
19	Watford	20	3	7	10	-18	16
20	Norwich	20	3	4	13	-19	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	10	10	0	0	+18	30
2	Leicester	10	7	2	1	+10	23
3	Man City	10	7	1	2	+18	22
4	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+11	20
5	Man United	10	5	4	1	+10	19
6	Everton	10	5	2	3	+1	17
7	Wolves	10	4	4	2	+2	16
8	Newcastle	10	4	4	2	+2	16
9	Brighton	10	4	3	3	+3	15
10	Crystal Palace	10	4	3	3	+0	15
11	Burnley	10	5	0	5	-2	15
12	Sheffield United	10	4	2	4	+2	14
13	Chelsea	10	4	2	4	+1	14
14	Aston Villa	10	4	2	4	-1	14
15	Arsenal	10	3	4	3	-2	13
16	Bournemouth	10	2	4	4	-4	10
17	Watford	10	2	4	4	-4	10
18	Norwich	10	2	2	6	-8	8
19	Southampton	10	2	2	6	-15	8
20	West Ham	9	2	1	6	-7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Liverpool	9	8	1	0	+15	25
2	Chelsea	10	7	0	3	+6	21
3	Leicester	10	6	1	3	+14	19
4	Man City	10	6	1	3	+13	19
5	Sheffield United	10	3	6	1	+2	15
6	Wolves	10	3	5	2	+2	14
7	Southampton	10	4	2	4	+1	14
8	Man United	10	3	3	4	-1	12
9	Crystal Palace	10	3	3	4	-4	12
10	West Ham	10	3	3	4	-4	12
11	Arsenal	10	2	5	3	-2	11
12	Tottenham	10	2	4	4	-4	10
13	Bournemouth	10	3	1	6	-4	10
14	Burnley	10	2	3	5	-7	9
15	Newcastle	10	3	0	7	-12	9
16	Brighton	10	2	2	6	-7	8
17	Everton	10	2	2	6	-8	8
18	Watford	10	1	3	6	-14	6
19	Norwich	10	1	2	7	-11	5
20	Aston Villa	10	1	1	8	-10	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.