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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Barnsley

S T T T U

0–1

Full-time

Birmingham

S U U S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Barnsley Birmingham

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

17%

50%

Points per game

0,7

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

67%

100%

Average goals

2,5

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,7

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+0,5

This season — Championship · 31/31 matches

Win Ø 26%

16%

35%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 53%

58%

48%

Both score Ø 65%

68%

61%

Average goals

3,0

2,8

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

63% Possession 37%

9 Shots 11

4 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 3

1 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 5

1 Offside 1

8 Free kicks against 8

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Barnsley 23. · Birmingham 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	31	16	11	4	+22	59
2	Leeds	31	16	7	8	+17	55
3	Fulham	29	16	6	7	+15	54
4	Nott'm Forest	31	15	9	7	+13	54
5	Preston	31	14	8	9	+9	50
6	Bristol City	31	14	8	9	+2	50
7	Swansea	29	12	10	7	+5	46
8	Millwall	31	11	12	8	+1	45
9	Cardiff	30	11	12	7	+0	45
10	Brentford	28	13	5	10	+21	44
11	Sheffield Weds	31	12	8	11	+7	44
12	Blackburn	31	12	8	11	+5	44
13	Derby	31	11	10	10	-3	43
14	Hull	31	11	7	13	-1	40
15	Birmingham	31	11	7	13	-8	40
16	Reading	31	10	9	12	+2	39
17	QPR	31	11	5	15	-9	38
18	Middlesbrough	31	8	12	11	-8	36
19	Huddersfield	31	9	8	14	-11	35
20	Stoke	31	10	4	17	-8	34
21	Charlton	31	8	9	14	-5	33
22	Wigan	31	7	8	16	-17	29
23	Barnsley	31	5	10	16	-20	25
24	Luton	31	7	3	21	-29	24

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	16	10	3	3	+13	33
2	Derby	16	9	5	2	+12	32
3	Fulham	16	10	2	4	+11	32
4	Cardiff	14	8	5	1	+10	29
5	Leeds	15	8	4	3	+9	28
6	Millwall	15	8	4	3	+7	28
7	West Brom	15	7	6	2	+12	27
8	Nott'm Forest	15	8	3	4	+5	27
9	Blackburn	16	7	6	3	+5	27
10	Middlesbrough	16	6	7	3	+1	25
11	Brentford	13	7	3	3	+13	24
12	Swansea	15	7	3	5	+5	24
13	Charlton	16	6	5	5	+3	23
14	Sheffield Weds	15	6	5	4	-1	23
15	QPR	16	6	4	6	+1	22
16	Bristol City	15	6	4	5	+0	22
17	Stoke	16	6	3	7	+1	21
18	Birmingham	15	6	3	6	+0	21
19	Reading	15	6	2	7	+1	20
20	Hull	16	6	2	8	-1	20
21	Huddersfield	16	5	5	6	-3	20
22	Barnsley	16	4	7	5	-5	19
23	Wigan	15	5	4	6	-5	19
24	Luton	15	5	3	7	-2	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	16	9	5	2	+10	32
2	Bristol City	16	8	4	4	+2	28
3	Leeds	16	8	3	5	+8	27
4	Nott'm Forest	16	7	6	3	+8	27
5	Fulham	13	6	4	3	+4	22
6	Swansea	14	5	7	2	+0	22
7	Sheffield Weds	16	6	3	7	+8	21
8	Brentford	15	6	2	7	+8	20
9	Hull	15	5	5	5	+0	20
10	Reading	16	4	7	5	+1	19
11	Birmingham	16	5	4	7	-8	19
12	Blackburn	15	5	2	8	+0	17
13	Preston	15	4	5	6	-4	17
14	Millwall	16	3	8	5	-6	17
15	Cardiff	16	3	7	6	-10	16
16	QPR	15	5	1	9	-10	16
17	Huddersfield	15	4	3	8	-8	15
18	Stoke	15	4	1	10	-9	13
19	Middlesbrough	15	2	5	8	-9	11
20	Derby	15	2	5	8	-15	11
21	Charlton	15	2	4	9	-8	10
22	Wigan	16	2	4	10	-12	10
23	Barnsley	15	1	3	11	-15	6
24	Luton	16	2	0	14	-27	6

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.