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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Luton

T S S T S

1–1

Full-time

Stoke

S T T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

50%

33%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,0

3,0

Scored

0,8

1,2

Conceded

1,2

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 35/35 matches

Win Ø 30%

29%

31%

Points per game

0,9

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

77%

57%

Both score Ø 56%

63%

49%

Average goals

3,2

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

2,0

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

64% Possession 36%

9 Shots 9

3 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

4 Corners 6

2 Offside 3

11 Free kicks against 9

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 24. · Stoke 20. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	35	19	12	4	+28	69
2	Leeds	36	20	8	8	+24	68
3	Fulham	33	17	8	8	+13	59
4	Nott'm Forest	35	16	11	8	+13	59
5	Preston	35	16	8	11	+9	56
6	Bristol City	35	15	8	12	-2	53
7	Blackburn	35	14	10	11	+10	52
8	Swansea	33	13	12	8	+6	51
9	Millwall	35	12	14	9	+1	50
10	Cardiff	34	12	13	9	+0	49
11	Sheffield Weds	35	13	9	13	+4	48
12	Brentford	32	13	8	11	+20	47
13	QPR	35	13	7	15	-6	46
14	Birmingham	35	12	10	13	-7	46
15	Derby	35	11	12	12	-5	45
16	Reading	35	11	9	15	+0	42
17	Hull	36	11	8	17	-10	41
18	Charlton	35	10	9	16	-5	39
19	Huddersfield	35	10	9	16	-15	39
20	Stoke	35	11	5	19	-10	38
21	Middlesbrough	35	8	13	14	-11	37
22	Wigan	35	9	10	16	-13	37
23	Barnsley	35	8	10	17	-16	34
24	Luton	35	10	3	22	-28	33

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	18	11	3	4	+13	36
2	Fulham	18	11	2	5	+9	35
3	Derby	18	9	7	2	+12	34
4	Leeds	17	10	4	3	+11	34
5	West Brom	17	8	7	2	+14	31
6	Blackburn	18	8	7	3	+8	31
7	Cardiff	16	8	6	2	+9	30
8	Millwall	17	8	6	3	+7	30
9	Swansea	17	8	4	5	+7	28
10	QPR	18	8	4	6	+4	28
11	Nott'm Forest	17	8	4	5	+4	28
12	Brentford	15	7	5	3	+13	26
13	Charlton	18	7	5	6	+3	26
14	Sheffield Weds	17	7	5	5	-3	26
15	Middlesbrough	18	6	7	5	-1	25
16	Bristol City	17	7	4	6	-2	25
17	Stoke	18	7	3	8	+1	24
18	Luton	17	7	3	7	+0	24
19	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+0	23
20	Wigan	17	6	5	6	-4	23
21	Huddersfield	18	6	5	7	-5	23
22	Barnsley	18	5	7	6	-5	22
23	Hull	19	6	3	10	-6	21
24	Reading	17	6	2	9	-3	20

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	18	11	5	2	+14	38
2	Leeds	19	10	4	5	+13	34
3	Nott'm Forest	18	8	7	3	+9	31
4	Bristol City	18	8	4	6	+0	28
5	Fulham	15	6	6	3	+4	24
6	Swansea	16	5	8	3	-1	23
7	Birmingham	18	6	5	7	-7	23
8	Sheffield Weds	18	6	4	8	+7	22
9	Reading	18	5	7	6	+3	22
10	Brentford	17	6	3	8	+7	21
11	Blackburn	17	6	3	8	+2	21
12	Hull	17	5	5	7	-4	20
13	Preston	17	5	5	7	-4	20
14	Millwall	18	4	8	6	-6	20
15	Cardiff	18	4	7	7	-9	19
16	QPR	17	5	3	9	-10	18
17	Huddersfield	17	4	4	9	-10	16
18	Wigan	18	3	5	10	-9	14
19	Stoke	17	4	2	11	-11	14
20	Charlton	17	3	4	10	-8	13
21	Middlesbrough	17	2	6	9	-10	12
22	Barnsley	17	3	3	11	-11	12
23	Derby	17	2	5	10	-17	11
24	Luton	18	3	0	15	-28	9

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.