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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Millwall

U S U T S

2–0

Full-time

Luton

S S T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Millwall Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

50%

67%

Points per game

1,8

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

67%

33%

Average goals

2,3

Scored

1,5

1,3

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,3

This season — Championship · 5/5 matches

Win Ø 50%

40%

60%

Points per game

1,6

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 30%

40%

20%

Both score Ø 40%

60%

20%

Average goals

1,8

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,8

Goal diff per game

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

41% Possession 59%

21 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 5

1 Goalkeeper saves 5

8 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Millwall 7. · Luton 6. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	5	4	1	0	+6	13
2	Reading	5	4	1	0	+6	13
3	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+4	11
4	Swansea	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Watford	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Luton	5	3	0	2	+1	9
7	Millwall	5	2	2	1	+1	8
8	Stoke	5	2	2	1	+1	8
9	Sheffield Weds	5	2	2	1	+1	8
10	Blackburn	5	2	1	2	+7	7
11	Brentford	5	2	1	2	+2	7
12	Norwich	5	2	1	2	+0	7
13	Cardiff	5	2	1	2	+0	7
14	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	QPR	5	1	3	1	+1	6
16	Middlesbrough	5	1	3	1	+0	6
17	Birmingham	5	1	3	1	+0	6
18	Rotherham	5	1	2	2	-1	5
19	Preston	5	1	1	3	-1	4
20	Coventry	5	1	1	3	-4	4
21	Nott'm Forest	5	1	0	4	-5	3
22	Derby	5	1	0	4	-7	3
23	Barnsley	5	0	2	3	-4	2
24	Wycombe	5	0	0	5	-11	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	3	2	1	0	+2	7
2	Brentford	3	2	0	1	+3	6
3	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Reading	2	2	0	0	+3	6
5	Watford	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Luton	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Middlesbrough	3	1	2	0	+1	5
8	Blackburn	3	1	1	1	+4	4
9	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Swansea	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Birmingham	3	1	1	1	+0	4
12	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Coventry	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Millwall	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Barnsley	3	0	2	1	-1	2
17	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Rotherham	3	0	1	2	-2	1
19	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-3	0
21	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Preston	3	0	0	3	-3	0
23	Wycombe	3	0	0	3	-4	0
24	Derby	3	0	0	3	-7	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	3	2	1	0	+3	7
2	Reading	3	2	1	0	+3	7
3	Cardiff	3	2	1	0	+3	7
4	Stoke	3	2	1	0	+3	7
5	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
6	Millwall	3	2	0	1	+1	6
7	Norwich	3	2	0	1	+1	6
8	Sheffield Weds	3	2	0	1	+1	6
9	Preston	2	1	1	0	+2	4
10	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
11	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
12	Watford	3	1	1	1	+0	4
13	Huddersfield	3	1	1	1	-2	4
14	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+3	3
15	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Nott'm Forest	3	1	0	2	-2	3
18	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
19	QPR	3	0	2	1	-1	2
20	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Coventry	3	0	1	2	-3	1
23	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Wycombe	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.