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Championship

Referee: J Brooks

Watford

T T T S U

1–0

Full-time

Luton

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Luton

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 58%

33%

83%

Points per game

1,2

2,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,3

Scored

1,0

1,7

Conceded

1,8

0,7

Goal diff per game

-0,8

+1,0

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 75%

50%

100%

Points per game

2,0

3,0

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 25%

50%

Average goals

0,5

2,0

Scored

0,5

1,5

Conceded

0,0

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

49% Possession 51%

14 Shots 4

5 Shots on target 0

5 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

11 Corners 1

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 15

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 7. · Luton 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Luton	2	2	0	0	+2	6
4	Sheffield Weds	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Norwich	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Millwall	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+4	3
12	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+2	3
13	QPR	2	1	0	1	+1	3
14	Coventry	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
16	Rotherham	2	1	0	1	+0	3
17	Huddersfield	3	1	0	2	-3	3
18	Preston	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
21	Derby	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Nott'm Forest	3	0	0	3	-5	0
24	Wycombe	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+5	3
2	Brentford	1	1	0	0	+3	3
3	Reading	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	QPR	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Bournemouth	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Coventry	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Millwall	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Sheffield Weds	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Preston	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Rotherham	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Nott'm Forest	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-2	0
24	Derby	1	0	0	1	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Bristol City	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Sheffield Weds	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	Reading	1	1	0	0	+2	3
5	Luton	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Swansea	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Norwich	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Rotherham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Bournemouth	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Stoke	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Blackburn	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Derby	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	Coventry	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Brentford	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Barnsley	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-3	0
23	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Wycombe	1	0	0	1	-5	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.