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Championship

Referee: O Langford

Derby

S T S T T

1–0

Full-time

Bournemouth

S U S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Bournemouth

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

1,5

1,7

Scored

1,0

1,3

Conceded

0,5

0,3

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+1,0

This season — Championship · 23/23 matches

Win Ø 33%

17%

48%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

17%

35%

Both score Ø 37%

26%

48%

Average goals

1,7

2,4

Scored

0,6

1,6

Conceded

1,1

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

+0,8

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

38% Possession 62%

12 Shots 10

6 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 2

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

3 Corners 4

1 Offside 7

12 Free kicks against 12

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 23. · Bournemouth 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	24	15	5	4	+12	50
2	Bournemouth	23	11	9	3	+19	42
3	Watford	23	11	7	5	+10	40
4	Reading	23	12	4	7	+6	40
5	Swansea	21	11	6	4	+12	39
6	Brentford	20	10	7	3	+14	37
7	Middlesbrough	23	10	6	7	+9	36
8	Stoke	24	9	9	6	+4	36
9	Bristol City	23	11	3	9	+1	36
10	Barnsley	22	10	4	8	+0	34
11	Blackburn	24	9	6	9	+11	33
12	Luton	24	9	6	9	-5	33
13	Preston	24	10	2	12	-3	32
14	Huddersfield	24	9	4	11	-6	31
15	Cardiff	23	8	5	10	+3	29
16	Millwall	23	5	11	7	-4	26
17	Coventry	23	6	8	9	-9	26
18	Birmingham	24	6	8	10	-11	26
19	Nott'm Forest	24	6	7	11	-8	25
20	Sheffield Weds	23	6	7	10	-8	25
21	QPR	23	5	9	9	-8	24
22	Rotherham	21	5	4	12	-9	19
23	Derby	23	4	7	12	-11	19
24	Wycombe	23	3	6	14	-19	15

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	12	9	2	1	+13	29
2	Norwich	12	7	4	1	+7	25
3	Bournemouth	12	7	3	2	+11	24
4	Middlesbrough	11	7	2	2	+10	23
5	Swansea	11	6	4	1	+8	22
6	Huddersfield	12	7	1	4	+6	22
7	Reading	11	7	0	4	+4	21
8	Barnsley	11	6	2	3	+3	20
9	Bristol City	12	6	2	4	+2	20
10	Blackburn	12	5	4	3	+6	19
11	Luton	12	5	4	3	+2	19
12	Stoke	12	5	3	4	+0	18
13	Sheffield Weds	12	4	5	3	+1	17
14	Coventry	11	4	5	2	-1	17
15	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
16	Nott'm Forest	12	4	4	4	+1	16
17	Cardiff	12	4	2	6	+3	14
18	QPR	11	3	4	4	-2	13
19	Preston	12	4	1	7	-3	13
20	Rotherham	10	3	2	5	+0	11
21	Millwall	11	1	7	3	-3	10
22	Wycombe	12	2	4	6	-6	10
23	Birmingham	12	2	2	8	-13	8
24	Derby	12	1	4	7	-10	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	12	8	1	3	+5	25
2	Brentford	11	6	3	2	+8	21
3	Reading	12	5	4	3	+2	19
4	Preston	12	6	1	5	+0	19
5	Bournemouth	11	4	6	1	+8	18
6	Stoke	12	4	6	2	+4	18
7	Birmingham	12	4	6	2	+2	18
8	Swansea	10	5	2	3	+4	17
9	Bristol City	11	5	1	5	-1	16
10	Millwall	12	4	4	4	-1	16
11	Cardiff	11	4	3	4	+0	15
12	Blackburn	12	4	2	6	+5	14
13	Barnsley	11	4	2	5	-3	14
14	Luton	12	4	2	6	-7	14
15	Middlesbrough	12	3	4	5	-1	13
16	Derby	11	3	3	5	-1	12
17	Watford	11	2	5	4	-3	11
18	QPR	12	2	5	5	-6	11
19	Coventry	12	2	3	7	-8	9
20	Nott'm Forest	12	2	3	7	-9	9
21	Huddersfield	12	2	3	7	-12	9
22	Rotherham	11	2	2	7	-9	8
23	Sheffield Weds	11	2	2	7	-9	8
24	Wycombe	11	1	2	8	-13	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.