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Championship

Referee: R Jones

Bournemouth

S U U U S

1–1

Full-time

Derby

S T T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Bournemouth Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

2,0

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 17%

17%

Both score Ø 42%

50%

33%

Average goals

1,7

1,8

Scored

1,2

0,5

Conceded

0,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,8

This season — Championship · 8/8 matches

Win Ø 32%

50%

13%

Points per game

2,0

0,6

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

25%

Both score Ø 51%

63%

38%

Average goals

2,1

2,0

Scored

1,4

0,5

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-1,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

69% Possession 31%

10 Shots 10

5 Shots on target 4

1 Blocked shots 3

2 Goalkeeper saves 4

4 Corners 1

2 Offside 0

13 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Bournemouth 3. · Derby 23. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	9	7	1	1	+11	22
2	Norwich	9	5	2	2	+4	17
3	Bournemouth	8	4	4	0	+5	16
4	Swansea	8	4	3	1	+5	15
5	Millwall	8	4	3	1	+5	15
6	Watford	8	4	3	1	+4	15
7	Bristol City	9	4	2	3	+2	14
8	Middlesbrough	8	3	4	1	+3	13
9	Luton	8	4	1	3	+0	13
10	Stoke	8	3	3	2	+0	12
11	Brentford	8	3	2	3	+2	11
12	Blackburn	8	3	1	4	+7	10
13	Preston	8	3	1	4	+0	10
14	Cardiff	8	2	4	2	+0	10
15	Birmingham	8	2	4	2	+0	10
16	Huddersfield	8	3	1	4	-3	10
17	Rotherham	8	2	3	3	-1	9
18	Sheffield Weds	8	2	2	4	-4	8
19	Coventry	9	2	2	5	-9	8
20	Barnsley	8	1	4	3	-1	7
21	QPR	8	1	4	3	-4	7
22	Nott'm Forest	8	1	3	4	-5	6
23	Derby	8	1	2	5	-8	5
24	Wycombe	8	0	1	7	-13	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Reading	4	4	0	0	+7	12
2	Watford	4	3	1	0	+4	10
3	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+3	10
4	Middlesbrough	4	2	2	0	+3	8
5	Brentford	4	2	1	1	+3	7
6	Swansea	4	2	1	1	+2	7
7	Norwich	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Luton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Birmingham	4	2	1	1	+1	7
10	Bristol City	5	2	1	2	+0	7
11	Coventry	5	2	1	2	-4	7
12	Millwall	4	1	3	0	+2	6
13	Huddersfield	4	2	0	2	+0	6
14	Barnsley	4	1	2	1	+2	5
15	QPR	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
17	Blackburn	4	1	1	2	+2	4
18	Rotherham	4	1	1	2	+1	4
19	Sheffield Weds	4	0	2	2	-2	2
20	Nott'm Forest	4	0	2	2	-3	2
21	Cardiff	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	Wycombe	4	0	1	3	-4	1
23	Derby	4	0	1	3	-7	1
24	Preston	4	0	0	4	-5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Preston	4	3	1	0	+5	10
2	Reading	5	3	1	1	+4	10
3	Norwich	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Millwall	4	3	0	1	+3	9
5	Swansea	4	2	2	0	+3	8
6	Cardiff	4	2	2	0	+3	8
7	Bristol City	4	2	1	1	+2	7
8	Stoke	4	2	1	1	+1	7
9	Blackburn	4	2	0	2	+5	6
10	Bournemouth	4	1	3	0	+2	6
11	Luton	4	2	0	2	-1	6
12	Sheffield Weds	4	2	0	2	-2	6
13	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Watford	4	1	2	1	+0	5
15	Rotherham	4	1	2	1	-2	5
16	Brentford	4	1	1	2	-1	4
17	Derby	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Nott'm Forest	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
20	Birmingham	4	0	3	1	-1	3
21	Barnsley	4	0	2	2	-3	2
22	QPR	4	0	2	2	-4	2
23	Coventry	4	0	1	3	-5	1
24	Wycombe	4	0	0	4	-9	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.