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Championship

Referee: D Bond

Derby

U S U U S

0–1

Full-time

Preston

U S T T S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Preston

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

83%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

1,2

3,2

Scored

0,8

1,7

Conceded

0,3

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

+0,2

This season — Championship · 19/20 matches

Win Ø 28%

16%

40%

Points per game

0,8

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 41%

16%

65%

Both score Ø 39%

32%

45%

Average goals

1,7

2,9

Scored

0,5

1,4

Conceded

1,2

1,5

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

35% Possession 65%

5 Shots 9

1 Shots on target 4

2 Blocked shots 1

3 Goalkeeper saves 1

2 Corners 7

1 Offside 4

11 Free kicks against 10

0 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 23. · Preston 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	20	13	4	3	+11	43
2	Bournemouth	20	10	8	2	+19	38
3	Brentford	19	9	7	3	+13	34
4	Watford	20	9	7	4	+8	34
5	Middlesbrough	20	9	6	5	+9	33
6	Stoke	20	9	6	5	+5	33
7	Reading	20	10	3	7	+4	33
8	Swansea	18	9	5	4	+9	32
9	Bristol City	20	9	3	8	-1	30
10	Cardiff	20	8	5	7	+6	29
11	Blackburn	20	8	4	8	+10	28
12	Barnsley	19	8	4	7	-1	28
13	Huddersfield	20	8	4	8	-3	28
14	Luton	20	7	6	7	-4	27
15	Preston	20	8	2	10	-3	26
16	Millwall	20	5	10	5	-1	25
17	Birmingham	20	5	7	8	-6	22
18	Coventry	20	5	7	8	-8	22
19	QPR	20	4	8	8	-8	20
20	Sheffield Weds	20	4	6	10	-10	18
21	Nott'm Forest	20	4	5	11	-11	17
22	Rotherham	19	4	4	11	-9	16
23	Derby	19	3	7	9	-12	16
24	Wycombe	20	2	6	12	-17	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bournemouth	10	7	2	1	+12	23
2	Middlesbrough	10	7	2	1	+11	23
3	Watford	10	7	2	1	+10	23
4	Norwich	10	6	3	1	+6	21
5	Huddersfield	10	6	1	3	+6	19
6	Swansea	9	5	3	1	+7	18
7	Reading	10	6	0	4	+3	18
8	Blackburn	10	5	2	3	+6	17
9	Barnsley	10	5	2	3	+2	17
10	Stoke	10	5	2	3	+1	17
11	Brentford	9	4	4	1	+6	16
12	Luton	10	4	4	2	+3	16
13	Coventry	10	4	4	2	-1	16
14	Cardiff	10	4	2	4	+5	14
15	Bristol City	10	4	2	4	-1	14
16	QPR	10	3	4	3	+0	13
17	Nott'm Forest	10	3	3	4	-1	12
18	Rotherham	9	3	2	4	+1	11
19	Sheffield Weds	10	2	5	3	-1	11
20	Millwall	10	1	7	2	-2	10
21	Preston	10	3	1	6	-4	10
22	Birmingham	10	2	2	6	-7	8
23	Wycombe	10	1	4	5	-5	7
24	Derby	10	1	4	5	-8	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	10	7	1	2	+5	22
2	Brentford	10	5	3	2	+7	18
3	Stoke	10	4	4	2	+4	16
4	Preston	10	5	1	4	+1	16
5	Bristol City	10	5	1	4	+0	16
6	Bournemouth	10	3	6	1	+7	15
7	Reading	10	4	3	3	+1	15
8	Cardiff	10	4	3	3	+1	15
9	Millwall	10	4	3	3	+1	15
10	Swansea	9	4	2	3	+2	14
11	Birmingham	10	3	5	2	+1	14
12	Blackburn	10	3	2	5	+4	11
13	Watford	10	2	5	3	-2	11
14	Barnsley	9	3	2	4	-3	11
15	Luton	10	3	2	5	-7	11
16	Middlesbrough	10	2	4	4	-2	10
17	Derby	9	2	3	4	-4	9
18	Huddersfield	10	2	3	5	-9	9
19	QPR	10	1	4	5	-8	7
20	Sheffield Weds	10	2	1	7	-9	7
21	Coventry	10	1	3	6	-7	6
22	Rotherham	10	1	2	7	-10	5
23	Nott'm Forest	10	1	2	7	-10	5
24	Wycombe	10	1	2	7	-12	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.