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Championship

Referee: T Robinson

Watford

U T U S S

2–1

Full-time

Derby

S S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 67%

50%

83%

Points per game

1,8

2,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

2,2

2,0

Scored

1,7

1,2

Conceded

0,5

0,8

Goal diff per game

+1,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 30/29 matches

Win Ø 41%

50%

31%

Points per game

1,8

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 26%

27%

24%

Both score Ø 33%

37%

28%

Average goals

1,9

1,8

Scored

1,3

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,6

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

51% Possession 49%

8 Shots 4

4 Shots on target 0

0 Blocked shots 0

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

3 Corners 10

1 Offside 2

12 Free kicks against 9

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 2. · Derby 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	30	18	7	5	+17	61
2	Watford	30	15	9	6	+18	54
3	Brentford	28	15	8	5	+23	53
4	Reading	30	15	6	9	+10	51
5	Bournemouth	29	13	10	6	+17	49
6	Swansea	25	14	7	4	+17	49
7	Cardiff	30	12	7	11	+9	43
8	Middlesbrough	30	12	7	11	+3	43
9	Barnsley	27	12	6	9	+2	42
10	Stoke	30	10	12	8	+1	42
11	Millwall	30	9	14	7	+3	41
12	Blackburn	29	11	6	12	+10	39
13	Preston	30	12	3	15	-4	39
14	Bristol City	30	12	3	15	-12	39
15	Luton	29	10	7	12	-8	37
16	QPR	28	9	9	10	-5	36
17	Derby	29	9	7	13	-9	34
18	Sheffield Weds	29	9	7	13	-10	34
19	Nott'm Forest	30	8	9	13	-6	33
20	Huddersfield	30	9	6	15	-10	33
21	Coventry	30	7	10	13	-15	31
22	Rotherham	28	8	5	15	-6	29
23	Birmingham	30	6	10	14	-16	28
24	Wycombe	29	4	7	18	-29	19

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Watford	15	11	2	2	+19	35
2	Norwich	15	9	5	1	+12	32
3	Bournemouth	15	9	3	3	+12	30
4	Swansea	14	8	5	1	+11	29
5	Reading	15	9	0	6	+6	27
6	Middlesbrough	15	8	2	5	+4	26
7	Brentford	13	7	4	2	+11	25
8	Barnsley	13	7	3	3	+4	24
9	Huddersfield	15	7	2	6	+4	23
10	Sheffield Weds	14	6	5	3	+4	23
11	Bristol City	15	7	2	6	-1	23
12	Blackburn	14	6	4	4	+6	22
13	Stoke	15	6	4	5	+0	22
14	Coventry	15	5	6	4	-2	21
15	Luton	14	5	5	4	+0	20
16	QPR	14	5	4	5	-1	19
17	Cardiff	15	5	3	7	+4	18
18	Millwall	15	3	9	3	+2	18
19	Nott'm Forest	15	4	6	5	+0	18
20	Derby	15	4	4	7	-7	16
21	Rotherham	14	4	3	7	+0	15
22	Preston	15	4	2	9	-5	14
23	Wycombe	15	2	5	8	-10	11
24	Birmingham	15	2	3	10	-15	9

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Norwich	15	9	2	4	+5	29
2	Brentford	15	8	4	3	+12	28
3	Cardiff	15	7	4	4	+5	25
4	Preston	15	8	1	6	+1	25
5	Reading	15	6	6	3	+4	24
6	Millwall	15	6	5	4	+1	23
7	Swansea	11	6	2	3	+6	20
8	Stoke	15	4	8	3	+1	20
9	Bournemouth	14	4	7	3	+5	19
10	Birmingham	15	4	7	4	-1	19
11	Watford	15	4	7	4	-1	19
12	Barnsley	14	5	3	6	-2	18
13	Derby	14	5	3	6	-2	18
14	Blackburn	15	5	2	8	+4	17
15	Middlesbrough	15	4	5	6	-1	17
16	QPR	14	4	5	5	-4	17
17	Luton	15	5	2	8	-8	17
18	Bristol City	15	5	1	9	-11	16
19	Nott'm Forest	15	4	3	8	-6	15
20	Rotherham	14	4	2	8	-6	14
21	Sheffield Weds	15	3	2	10	-14	11
22	Coventry	15	2	4	9	-13	10
23	Huddersfield	15	2	4	9	-14	10
24	Wycombe	14	2	2	10	-19	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.