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Serie A

Referee: G Calvarese

Fiorentina

T S U T T

3–0

Full-time

Spezia

U T T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Fiorentina Spezia

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,2

1,7

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,8

2,7

Scored

0,8

1,5

Conceded

2,0

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

This season — Serie A · 22/22 matches

Win Ø 25%

23%

27%

Points per game

1,0

1,1

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

45%

73%

Both score Ø 57%

50%

64%

Average goals

2,6

3,1

Scored

1,0

1,4

Conceded

1,6

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,6

-0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

37% Possession 63%

10 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

0 Corners 6

3 Offside 1

20 Free kicks against 11

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Fiorentina 16. · Spezia 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Inter	22	15	5	2	+30	50
2	Milan	22	15	4	3	+20	49
3	Roma	22	13	4	5	+12	43
4	Juventus	21	12	6	3	+22	42
5	Napoli	21	13	1	7	+24	40
6	Atalanta	22	11	7	4	+20	40
7	Lazio	22	12	4	6	+7	40
8	Sassuolo	22	9	7	6	+3	34
9	Verona	22	9	6	7	+4	33
10	Sampdoria	22	9	3	10	+0	30
11	Genoa	22	6	7	9	-7	25
12	Bologna	22	6	6	10	-7	24
13	Spezia	22	6	6	10	-8	24
14	Udinese	22	6	6	10	-8	24
15	Benevento	22	6	6	10	-17	24
16	Fiorentina	22	5	7	10	-13	22
17	Torino	22	2	11	9	-9	17
18	Cagliari	22	3	6	13	-16	15
19	Parma	22	2	7	13	-28	13
20	Crotone	22	3	3	16	-29	12

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Roma	12	9	3	0	+18	30
2	Inter	11	9	1	1	+18	28
3	Juventus	10	7	2	1	+12	23
4	Napoli	11	7	1	3	+18	22
5	Milan	11	6	3	2	+9	21
6	Verona	11	6	2	3	+6	20
7	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+3	20
8	Atalanta	11	5	3	3	+10	18
9	Sampdoria	11	5	1	5	+2	16
10	Fiorentina	11	4	4	3	+0	16
11	Bologna	11	4	3	4	-1	15
12	Genoa	11	4	2	5	-1	14
13	Sassuolo	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-3	12
15	Crotone	11	3	1	7	-8	10
16	Benevento	11	2	4	5	-9	10
17	Cagliari	11	2	3	6	-7	9
18	Spezia	11	2	3	6	-7	9
19	Torino	11	0	7	4	-5	7
20	Parma	11	1	4	6	-15	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Milan	11	9	1	1	+11	28
2	Inter	11	6	4	1	+12	22
3	Atalanta	11	6	4	1	+10	22
4	Sassuolo	12	6	3	3	+3	21
5	Lazio	11	6	2	3	+4	20
6	Juventus	11	5	4	2	+10	19
7	Napoli	10	6	0	4	+6	18
8	Spezia	11	4	3	4	-1	15
9	Sampdoria	11	4	2	5	-2	14
10	Benevento	11	4	2	5	-8	14
11	Verona	11	3	4	4	-2	13
12	Roma	10	4	1	5	-6	13
13	Udinese	11	3	3	5	-5	12
14	Genoa	11	2	5	4	-6	11
15	Torino	11	2	4	5	-4	10
16	Bologna	11	2	3	6	-6	9
17	Cagliari	11	1	3	7	-9	6
18	Parma	11	1	3	7	-13	6
19	Fiorentina	11	1	3	7	-13	6
20	Crotone	11	0	2	9	-21	2

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.