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Championship

Referee: G Eltringham

Derby

S T T T S

0–1

Full-time

Watford

T S U S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Watford

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,0

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 34%

50%

17%

Average goals

3,0

2,0

Scored

1,0

0,7

Conceded

2,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

-1,0

-0,7

This season — Championship · 4/4 matches

Win Ø 38%

25%

50%

Points per game

0,8

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

50%

Both score Ø 13%

25%

Average goals

2,5

0,8

Scored

0,5

Conceded

2,0

0,3

Goal diff per game

-1,5

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

52% Possession 48%

9 Shots 8

1 Shots on target 1

3 Blocked shots 2

0 Goalkeeper saves 1

3 Corners 3

0 Offside 1

10 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 21. · Watford 7. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	4	4	0	0	+6	12
2	Reading	4	4	0	0	+6	12
3	Bournemouth	4	3	1	0	+4	10
4	Swansea	4	3	1	0	+4	10
5	Luton	4	3	0	1	+3	9
6	Blackburn	4	2	1	1	+8	7
7	Watford	4	2	1	1	+1	7
8	Birmingham	4	1	3	0	+1	6
9	QPR	4	1	2	1	+1	5
10	Middlesbrough	4	1	2	1	+0	5
11	Rotherham	4	1	2	1	+0	5
12	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
13	Sheffield Weds	4	1	2	1	+0	5
14	Stoke	4	1	2	1	-1	5
15	Preston	4	1	1	2	+0	4
16	Brentford	4	1	1	2	+0	4
17	Norwich	4	1	1	2	-1	4
18	Cardiff	4	1	1	2	-1	4
19	Coventry	4	1	1	2	-2	4
20	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-3	4
21	Derby	4	1	0	3	-6	3
22	Barnsley	4	0	1	3	-4	1
23	Nott'm Forest	4	0	0	4	-6	0
24	Wycombe	4	0	0	4	-10	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Luton	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Reading	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Bournemouth	2	2	0	0	+2	6
5	Watford	2	2	0	0	+2	6
6	Blackburn	2	1	1	0	+5	4
7	QPR	2	1	1	0	+2	4
8	Middlesbrough	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
10	Swansea	2	1	1	0	+1	4
11	Brentford	2	1	0	1	+1	3
12	Huddersfield	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Coventry	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	Millwall	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Sheffield Weds	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Rotherham	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Barnsley	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Stoke	2	0	1	1	-2	1
20	Preston	2	0	0	2	-2	0
21	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-3	0
22	Cardiff	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Wycombe	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Derby	2	0	0	2	-6	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bristol City	2	2	0	0	+3	6
2	Reading	2	2	0	0	+3	6
3	Swansea	2	2	0	0	+3	6
4	Preston	2	1	1	0	+2	4
5	Bournemouth	2	1	1	0	+2	4
6	Cardiff	2	1	1	0	+2	4
7	Rotherham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
8	Stoke	2	1	1	0	+1	4
9	Blackburn	2	1	0	1	+3	3
10	Derby	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Sheffield Weds	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Norwich	2	1	0	1	+0	3
14	Luton	2	1	0	1	+0	3
15	Birmingham	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	QPR	2	0	1	1	-1	1
17	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
18	Coventry	2	0	1	1	-1	1
19	Brentford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
20	Watford	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Huddersfield	2	0	1	1	-3	1
22	Barnsley	2	0	0	2	-3	0
23	Nott'm Forest	2	0	0	2	-3	0
24	Wycombe	2	0	0	2	-7	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.