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2. Bundesliga

Erzgebirge Aue

U S S T U

4–1

Full-time

Karlsruhe

S S S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Erzgebirge Aue Karlsruhe

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,5

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,7

3,5

Scored

1,7

2,2

Conceded

1,0

1,3

Goal diff per game

+0,7

+0,8

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 41%

36%

45%

Points per game

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 55%

55%

Both score Ø 45%

45%

Average goals

2,6

2,7

Scored

1,5

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,3

+0,4

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

15 Shots 17

7 Shots on target 5

1 Corners 10

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Erzgebirge Aue 10. · Karlsruhe 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Holstein Kiel	12	7	4	1	+9	25
2	Hamburg	12	7	2	3	+9	23
3	Greuther Furth	12	6	3	3	+7	21
4	Bochum	12	6	2	4	+7	20
5	Fortuna Dusseldorf	12	6	2	4	-2	20
6	Heidenheim	12	5	4	3	+4	19
7	Osnabruck	12	5	4	3	+0	19
8	Karlsruhe	11	5	1	5	+4	16
9	Nurnberg	12	4	4	4	+3	16
10	Erzgebirge Aue	11	4	4	3	+3	16
11	Hannover	12	5	1	6	+1	16
12	Regensburg	12	4	4	4	+0	16
13	Paderborn	12	4	3	5	+1	15
14	Darmstadt	12	4	3	5	+0	15
15	Braunschweig	12	3	3	6	-13	12
16	Sandhausen	12	3	2	7	-13	11
17	St Pauli	11	1	5	5	-6	8
18	Wurzburger Kickers	11	1	1	9	-14	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	5	1	0	+7	16
2	Heidenheim	7	4	3	0	+7	15
3	Holstein Kiel	7	4	2	1	+3	14
4	Hamburg	7	4	1	2	+7	13
5	Hannover	6	4	1	1	+7	13
6	Bochum	6	3	2	1	+8	11
7	Paderborn	6	3	1	2	+2	10
8	Regensburg	6	3	1	2	+2	10
9	Braunschweig	6	3	1	2	-1	10
10	Erzgebirge Aue	5	2	2	1	+2	8
11	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	+0	8
12	Sandhausen	6	2	2	2	-4	8
13	Greuther Furth	6	2	1	3	-1	7
14	Osnabruck	5	2	1	2	-2	7
15	Karlsruhe	5	2	0	3	+1	6
16	Darmstadt	5	1	2	2	-1	5
17	St Pauli	5	1	2	2	-2	5
18	Wurzburger Kickers	6	1	1	4	-6	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Greuther Furth	6	4	2	0	+8	14
2	Osnabruck	7	3	3	1	+2	12
3	Holstein Kiel	5	3	2	0	+6	11
4	Karlsruhe	6	3	1	2	+3	10
5	Hamburg	5	3	1	1	+2	10
6	Darmstadt	7	3	1	3	+1	10
7	Bochum	6	3	0	3	-1	9
8	Nurnberg	6	2	2	2	+3	8
9	Erzgebirge Aue	6	2	2	2	+1	8
10	Regensburg	6	1	3	2	-2	6
11	Paderborn	6	1	2	3	-1	5
12	Heidenheim	5	1	1	3	-3	4
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	1	1	4	-9	4
14	St Pauli	6	0	3	3	-4	3
15	Hannover	6	1	0	5	-6	3
16	Sandhausen	6	1	0	5	-9	3
17	Braunschweig	6	0	2	4	-12	2
18	Wurzburger Kickers	5	0	0	5	-8	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.