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Championship

Referee: J Busby

Derby

U T U S T

1–0

Full-time

Reading

U S S S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Derby Reading

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

17%

83%

Both score Ø 50%

33%

67%

Average goals

1,3

3,7

Scored

0,5

2,0

Conceded

0,8

1,7

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

This season — Championship · 10/10 matches

Win Ø 35%

20%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,6

Over 2.5 Ø 60%

30%

90%

Both score Ø 65%

50%

80%

Average goals

1,7

3,8

Scored

0,7

1,9

Conceded

1,0

1,9

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,0

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

46% Possession 54%

14 Shots 16

5 Shots on target 7

4 Blocked shots 1

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

2 Corners 4

5 Offside 0

10 Free kicks against 10

4 Yellow cards 0

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Derby 19. · Reading 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	11	7	4	0	+13	25
2	Bournemouth	10	6	4	0	+9	22
3	Coventry	10	7	1	2	+9	22
4	Stoke	10	5	3	2	+3	18
5	Fulham	9	5	2	2	+11	17
6	Blackburn	10	4	4	2	+6	16
7	Huddersfield	9	5	1	3	+4	16
8	Reading	10	5	1	4	+0	16
9	QPR	10	4	3	3	+5	15
10	Sheffield United	11	4	3	4	+3	15
11	Preston	11	3	5	3	-1	14
12	Bristol City	9	3	4	2	+1	13
13	Luton	10	3	4	3	+0	13
14	Middlesbrough	10	3	3	4	+0	12
15	Blackpool	10	3	3	4	-4	12
16	Birmingham	11	3	3	5	-5	12
17	Cardiff	11	3	3	5	-6	12
18	Swansea	9	2	4	3	-3	10
19	Derby	10	2	4	4	-3	10
20	Millwall	9	1	6	2	-2	9
21	Barnsley	9	1	5	3	-4	8
22	Peterboro	10	2	2	6	-10	8
23	Peterborough	9	2	1	6	-10	7
24	Hull	10	1	3	6	-9	6
25	Nott'm Forest	8	0	2	6	-7	2

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Coventry	6	6	0	0	+11	18
2	Reading	6	4	1	1	+5	13
3	Stoke	5	4	1	0	+5	13
4	West Brom	5	3	2	0	+6	11
5	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+5	11
6	Preston	6	3	2	1	+1	11
7	Sheffield United	6	3	1	2	+7	10
8	Blackburn	5	3	1	1	+6	10
9	Huddersfield	4	3	0	1	+2	9
10	QPR	5	2	2	1	+3	8
11	Peterboro	5	2	2	1	+3	8
12	Luton	5	2	2	1	+1	8
13	Fulham	4	2	1	1	+4	7
14	Peterborough	4	2	1	1	+3	7
15	Middlesbrough	5	2	1	2	+1	7
16	Derby	4	1	3	0	+1	6
17	Swansea	5	1	3	1	-1	6
18	Blackpool	5	2	0	3	-4	6
19	Millwall	4	1	2	1	+0	5
20	Barnsley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
21	Birmingham	5	1	2	2	-3	5
22	Bristol City	5	0	4	1	-1	4
23	Cardiff	5	1	1	3	-4	4
24	Hull	5	0	2	3	-6	2
25	Nott'm Forest	5	0	1	4	-5	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	West Brom	6	4	2	0	+7	14
2	Bournemouth	5	3	2	0	+4	11
3	Fulham	5	3	1	1	+7	10
4	Bristol City	4	3	0	1	+2	9
5	Cardiff	6	2	2	2	-2	8
6	QPR	5	2	1	2	+2	7
7	Huddersfield	5	2	1	2	+2	7
8	Birmingham	6	2	1	3	-2	7
9	Blackpool	5	1	3	1	+0	6
10	Blackburn	5	1	3	1	+0	6
11	Luton	5	1	2	2	-1	5
12	Middlesbrough	5	1	2	2	-1	5
13	Stoke	5	1	2	2	-2	5
14	Sheffield United	5	1	2	2	-4	5
15	Swansea	4	1	1	2	-2	4
16	Millwall	5	0	4	1	-2	4
17	Coventry	4	1	1	2	-2	4
18	Hull	5	1	1	3	-3	4
19	Derby	6	1	1	4	-4	4
20	Preston	5	0	3	2	-2	3
21	Barnsley	5	0	3	2	-4	3
22	Reading	4	1	0	3	-5	3
23	Nott'm Forest	3	0	1	2	-2	1
24	Peterboro	5	0	0	5	-13	0
25	Peterborough	5	0	0	5	-13	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.