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2. Bundesliga

Referee: Patrick Alt

Darmstadt

S U T S S

2–0

Full-time

Dresden

T S T U U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Darmstadt Dresden

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,3

2,7

Scored

1,5

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-0,3

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

67%

17%

Points per game

2,2

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 75%

67%

83%

Both score Ø 67%

50%

83%

Average goals

2,7

3,3

Scored

1,8

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,8

Goal diff per game

+1,0

-0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

40% Possession 60%

11 Shots 12

4 Shots on target 0

3 Blocked shots 4

0 Goalkeeper saves 2

6 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

15 Free kicks against 13

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Darmstadt 1. · Dresden 14. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Darmstadt	6	4	1	1	+6	+0.9	13
2	Elversberg	6	4	1	1	+5	-2.9	13
3	Hannover	6	4	1	1	+3	+2.5	13
4	Kaiserslautern	6	4	0	2	+7	-0.2	12
5	Schalke 04	6	4	0	2	+3	+0.8	12
6	Paderborn	6	3	2	1	+3	+2.8	11
7	Karlsruhe	6	3	2	1	+1	+0.3	11
8	Bielefeld	6	3	1	2	+5	+1.7	10
9	Holstein Kiel	6	3	0	3	+2	+0.1	9
10	Greuther Furth	6	3	0	3	-2	-0.2	9
11	Preußen Münster	6	2	1	3	-3	-2.5	7
12	Braunschweig	6	2	1	3	-4	-1.1	7
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	6	2	1	3	-7	-3.5	7
14	Dresden	6	1	2	3	-2	+1.8	5
15	Hertha	6	1	2	3	-2	-1.9	5
16	Nurnberg	6	1	1	4	-3	+0.1	4
17	Bochum	6	1	0	5	-5	+1.8	3
18	Magdeburg	6	1	0	5	-7	-0.5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Kaiserslautern	3	3	0	0	+6	+1.0	9
2	Karlsruhe	3	3	0	0	+4	+0.1	9
3	Darmstadt	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.6	7
4	Elversberg	3	2	1	0	+2	-0.4	7
5	Bielefeld	4	2	0	2	+3	+2.2	6
6	Paderborn	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.4	6
7	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	+1.7	6
8	Hannover	3	2	0	1	+0	+1.2	6
9	Preußen Münster	3	1	1	1	+0	-2.4	4
10	Nurnberg	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.4	4
11	Braunschweig	3	1	1	1	-2	+0.3	4
12	Bochum	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.4	3
13	Holstein Kiel	3	1	0	2	+0	+0.5	3
14	Greuther Furth	3	1	0	2	-4	+0.1	3
15	Dresden	3	0	1	2	-2	+1.8	1
16	Hertha	3	0	1	2	-4	-0.2	1
17	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	0	1	2	-5	-1.3	1
18	Magdeburg	3	0	0	3	-4	+1.3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	3	2	1	0	+3	+1.3	7
2	Elversberg	3	2	0	1	+3	-2.4	6
3	Greuther Furth	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.3	6
4	Darmstadt	3	2	0	1	+2	+0.4	6
5	Holstein Kiel	3	2	0	1	+2	-0.4	6
6	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+2	-1.0	6
7	Fortuna Dusseldorf	3	2	0	1	-2	-2.2	6
8	Paderborn	3	1	2	0	+2	+2.4	5
9	Hertha	3	1	1	1	+2	-1.7	4
10	Bielefeld	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.5	4
11	Dresden	3	1	1	1	+0	-0.1	4
12	Kaiserslautern	3	1	0	2	+1	-1.2	3
13	Braunschweig	3	1	0	2	-2	-1.3	3
14	Preußen Münster	3	1	0	2	-3	-0.1	3
15	Magdeburg	3	1	0	2	-3	-1.8	3
16	Karlsruhe	3	0	2	1	-3	+0.2	2
17	Nurnberg	3	0	0	3	-3	+0.4	0
18	Bochum	4	0	0	4	-6	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.