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DFB-Pokal

Referee: F Badstubner

Dresden

T S T T T

0–1

Full-time

Mainz

U T U S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Mainz

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,5

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

50%

67%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,8

3,3

Scored

1,2

1,5

Conceded

1,7

1,8

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

52% Possession 48%

16 Shots 12

7 Shots on target 6

2 Blocked shots 1

5 Goalkeeper saves 7

3 Corners 4

0 Offside 1

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+9	3
2	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Cottbus	1	1	0	0	+1	3
24	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+1	3
25	Illertissen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
26	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
27	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
28	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
29	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
30	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
31	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
32	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
33	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
34	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
35	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0
36	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
37	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
38	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
39	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
40	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
41	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
42	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
43	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
44	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
45	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
46	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
47	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
48	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
49	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
50	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
51	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
52	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Bielefeld	1	1	0	0	+1	3
2	Cottbus	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Illertissen	1	0	1	0	+0	1
4	Eintracht Norderstedt	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Atlas Delmenhorst	1	0	0	1	-1	0
6	Regensburg	1	0	0	1	-1	0
7	VfB Lubeck	1	0	0	1	-1	0
8	Pirmasens	1	0	0	1	-1	0
9	Ulm	1	0	0	1	-1	0
10	Lokomotive Leipzig	1	0	0	1	-1	0
11	Sandhausen	1	0	0	1	-2	0
12	FC Saarbrücken	1	0	0	1	-2	0
13	FC Viktoria Koln	1	0	0	1	-2	0
14	BFC Dynamo	1	0	0	1	-2	0
15	BW Lohne	1	0	0	1	-2	0
16	Hallescher FC	1	0	0	1	-2	0
17	FC 08 Homburg	1	0	0	1	-2	0
18	Sportfreunde Lotte	1	0	0	1	-2	0
19	Hansa Rostock	1	0	0	1	-4	0
20	SG Sonnenhof Grossaspach	1	0	0	1	-4	0
21	FV Engers 07	1	0	0	1	-5	0
22	FC Gutersloh	1	0	0	1	-5	0
23	Bahlinger SC	1	0	0	1	-5	0
24	ZFC Meuselwitz	1	0	0	1	-5	0
25	RSV Eintracht	1	0	0	1	-7	0
26	Hemelingen	1	0	0	1	-9	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Wolfsburg	1	1	0	0	+9	3
2	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+7	3
3	Ein Frankfurt	1	1	0	0	+5	3
4	Union Berlin	1	1	0	0	+5	3
5	Heidenheim	1	1	0	0	+5	3
6	Karlsruhe	1	1	0	0	+5	3
7	Hoffenheim	1	1	0	0	+4	3
8	Leverkusen	1	1	0	0	+4	3
9	RB Leipzig	1	1	0	0	+2	3
10	Magdeburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
11	Paderborn	1	1	0	0	+2	3
12	Bochum	1	1	0	0	+2	3
13	Greuther Furth	1	1	0	0	+2	3
14	Augsburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
15	Holstein Kiel	1	1	0	0	+2	3
16	Freiburg	1	1	0	0	+2	3
17	M'gladbach	1	1	0	0	+1	3
18	FC Koln	1	1	0	0	+1	3
19	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	3
20	Hamburg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
21	Elversberg	1	1	0	0	+1	3
22	Schalke 04	1	1	0	0	+1	3
23	Nurnberg	1	0	1	0	+0	1
24	St Pauli	1	0	1	0	+0	1
25	Werder Bremen	1	0	0	1	-1	0
26	Hannover	1	0	0	1	-1	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.