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2. Bundesliga

Referee: R Hartmann

Dresden

T T T T S

0–1

Full-time

Schalke 04

T S T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Dresden Schalke 04

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

33%

50%

Points per game

1,0

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 59%

67%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,2

2,2

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,7

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 3/3 matches

Win Ø 50%

33%

67%

Points per game

1,0

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 84%

100%

67%

Both score Ø 84%

100%

67%

Average goals

3,7

2,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,0

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,3

+0,3

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

61% Possession 39%

6 Shots 16

3 Shots on target 5

2 Blocked shots 6

4 Goalkeeper saves 3

1 Corners 6

8 Offside 1

11 Free kicks against 10

1 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Dresden 11. · Schalke 04 8. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	4	4	0	0	+6	+2.5	12
2	Elversberg	4	3	0	1	+2	-2.9	9
3	Karlsruhe	4	2	2	0	+3	+0.3	8
4	Bielefeld	4	2	1	1	+5	+1.7	7
5	Darmstadt	3	2	1	0	+4	+0.9	7
6	Preußen Münster	4	2	1	1	+1	-2.5	7
7	Braunschweig	4	2	1	1	+0	-1.1	7
8	Schalke 04	3	2	0	1	+1	+0.8	6
9	Paderborn	4	1	2	1	+0	+2.8	5
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	4	1	1	2	-5	-3.5	4
11	Dresden	3	1	0	2	-1	+1.8	3
12	Kaiserslautern	3	1	0	2	-1	-0.2	3
13	Greuther Furth	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.2	3
14	Holstein Kiel	4	1	0	3	-2	+0.1	3
15	Magdeburg	3	1	0	2	-2	-0.5	3
16	Bochum	4	1	0	3	-3	+1.8	3
17	Hertha	4	0	2	2	-3	-1.9	2
18	Nurnberg	4	0	1	3	-3	+0.1	1

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Karlsruhe	2	2	0	0	+3	+0.1	6
2	Hannover	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.2	6
3	Schalke 04	2	2	0	0	+2	+1.7	6
4	Elversberg	2	2	0	0	+2	-0.4	6
5	Darmstadt	2	1	1	0	+3	+0.6	4
6	Braunschweig	2	1	1	0	+1	+0.3	4
7	Preußen Münster	2	1	1	0	+1	-2.4	4
8	Bielefeld	2	1	0	1	+3	+2.2	3
9	Bochum	2	1	0	1	+1	+2.4	3
10	Kaiserslautern	1	1	0	0	+1	+1.0	3
11	Paderborn	2	1	0	1	+0	+0.4	3
12	Greuther Furth	2	1	0	1	-1	+0.1	3
13	Nurnberg	2	0	1	1	-1	-0.4	1
14	Hertha	2	0	1	1	-2	-0.2	1
15	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	0	1	1	-2	-1.3	1
16	Dresden	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.8	0
17	Magdeburg	1	0	0	1	-1	+1.3	0
18	Holstein Kiel	2	0	0	2	-3	+0.5	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hannover	2	2	0	0	+3	+1.3	6
2	Bielefeld	2	1	1	0	+2	-0.5	4
3	Holstein Kiel	2	1	0	1	+1	-0.4	3
4	Darmstadt	1	1	0	0	+1	+0.4	3
5	Dresden	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
6	Preußen Münster	2	1	0	1	+0	-0.1	3
7	Elversberg	2	1	0	1	+0	-2.4	3
8	Magdeburg	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.8	3
9	Braunschweig	2	1	0	1	-1	-1.3	3
10	Fortuna Dusseldorf	2	1	0	1	-3	-2.2	3
11	Paderborn	2	0	2	0	+0	+2.4	2
12	Karlsruhe	2	0	2	0	+0	+0.2	2
13	Hertha	2	0	1	1	-1	-1.7	1
14	Greuther Furth	1	0	0	1	-1	-0.3	0
15	Schalke 04	1	0	0	1	-1	-1.0	0
16	Nurnberg	2	0	0	2	-2	+0.4	0
17	Kaiserslautern	2	0	0	2	-2	-1.2	0
18	Bochum	2	0	0	2	-4	-0.6	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.