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Championship

Referee: T Harrington

Blackburn

T S T U T

3–1

Full-time

Derby

T T T S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Blackburn Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,0

Over 2.5 Ø 9%

17%

Both score Ø 9%

17%

Average goals

0,8

1,7

Scored

0,2

0,7

Conceded

0,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

-0,5

-0,3

This season — Championship · 38/39 matches

Win Ø 38%

45%

31%

Points per game

1,6

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

39%

38%

Both score Ø 43%

37%

49%

Average goals

2,3

2,1

Scored

1,3

1,0

Conceded

1,0

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

41% Possession 59%

12 Shots 11

5 Shots on target 2

2 Blocked shots 4

1 Goalkeeper saves 2

9 Corners 1

1 Offside 3

6 Free kicks against 6

1 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Blackburn 5. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	38	25	8	5	+61	83
2	Bournemouth	36	19	10	7	+25	67
3	Huddersfield	37	18	12	7	+18	66
4	Sheffield United	36	18	7	11	+16	61
5	Blackburn	38	17	10	11	+13	61
6	Coventry	38	17	9	12	+11	60
7	Luton	36	17	8	11	+11	59
8	QPR	37	17	8	12	+9	59
9	Middlesbrough	37	17	8	12	+8	59
10	Preston	39	14	15	10	+2	57
11	West Brom	38	15	11	12	+9	56
12	Blackpool	37	15	9	13	+3	54
13	Millwall	37	14	12	11	+2	54
14	Nott'm Forest	33	15	8	10	+16	53
15	Stoke	38	13	11	14	+5	50
16	Derby	39	12	12	15	-5	48
17	Cardiff	39	13	8	18	-8	47
18	Swansea	36	13	8	15	-9	47
19	Bristol City	38	13	7	18	-17	46
20	Birmingham	39	10	12	17	-17	42
21	Hull	39	11	8	20	-9	41
22	Reading	38	11	6	21	-28	39
23	Barnsley	37	5	11	21	-26	26
24	Peterboro	36	5	8	23	-45	23
25	Peterborough	36	5	8	23	-45	23

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
3	Blackburn	20	12	4	4	+16	40
4	Huddersfield	18	11	5	2	+15	38
5	Coventry	20	11	4	5	+15	37
6	Derby	19	10	6	3	+10	36
7	Bournemouth	18	10	5	3	+17	35
8	Blackpool	20	11	2	7	+5	35
9	West Brom	18	9	7	2	+14	34
10	Luton	18	10	4	4	+12	34
11	Sheffield United	17	10	3	4	+20	33
12	QPR	19	9	6	4	+10	33
13	Millwall	18	9	6	3	+8	33
14	Swansea	18	9	4	5	+6	31
15	Nott'm Forest	18	9	3	6	+9	30
16	Preston	19	7	9	3	+4	30
17	Stoke	19	8	4	7	+6	28
18	Bristol City	19	7	5	7	-1	26
19	Cardiff	20	7	3	10	+1	24
20	Birmingham	19	6	6	7	-2	24
21	Reading	19	6	4	9	-9	22
22	Peterboro	17	4	6	7	-6	18
23	Peterborough	17	4	6	7	-6	18
24	Barnsley	18	4	6	8	-7	18
25	Hull	19	5	3	11	-8	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	18	12	4	2	+31	40
2	Bournemouth	18	9	5	4	+8	32
3	Huddersfield	19	7	7	5	+3	28
4	Sheffield United	19	8	4	7	-4	28
5	Preston	20	7	6	7	-2	27
6	QPR	18	8	2	8	-1	26
7	Luton	18	7	4	7	-1	25
8	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
9	Hull	20	6	5	9	-1	23
10	Coventry	18	6	5	7	-4	23
11	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
12	Stoke	19	5	7	7	-1	22
13	West Brom	20	6	4	10	-5	22
14	Blackburn	18	5	6	7	-3	21
15	Millwall	19	5	6	8	-6	21
16	Bristol City	19	6	2	11	-16	20
17	Blackpool	17	4	7	6	-2	19
18	Middlesbrough	18	4	6	8	-7	18
19	Birmingham	20	4	6	10	-15	18
20	Reading	19	5	2	12	-19	17
21	Swansea	18	4	4	10	-15	16
22	Derby	20	2	6	12	-15	12
23	Barnsley	19	1	5	13	-19	8
24	Peterboro	19	1	2	16	-39	5
25	Peterborough	19	1	2	16	-39	5

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.