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Championship

Referee: A Woolmer

Luton

S S T S S

1–0

Full-time

Derby

S T S S T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Luton Derby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

50%

Both score Ø 42%

33%

50%

Average goals

2,0

2,7

Scored

1,2

Conceded

0,8

1,5

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,3

This season — Championship · 32/35 matches

Win Ø 39%

47%

31%

Points per game

1,7

1,3

Over 2.5 Ø 48%

53%

43%

Both score Ø 48%

41%

54%

Average goals

2,7

2,1

Scored

1,5

1,0

Conceded

1,2

1,1

Goal diff per game

+0,3

-0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

53% Possession 47%

8 Shots 6

5 Shots on target 1

1 Blocked shots 0

1 Goalkeeper saves 3

7 Corners 4

4 Offside 3

13 Free kicks against 16

2 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Luton 9. · Derby 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	34	22	7	5	+54	73
2	Blackburn	35	17	9	9	+16	60
3	Bournemouth	31	17	8	6	+23	59
4	Sheffield United	33	17	7	9	+17	58
5	Coventry	34	16	8	10	+11	56
6	Huddersfield	33	15	11	7	+10	56
7	QPR	35	16	8	11	+9	56
8	Middlesbrough	33	16	7	10	+11	55
9	Luton	32	15	8	9	+11	53
10	West Brom	35	14	10	11	+9	52
11	Preston	36	13	13	10	+1	52
12	Nott'm Forest	31	13	8	10	+10	47
13	Stoke	33	13	8	12	+7	47
14	Millwall	33	12	10	11	+0	46
15	Blackpool	34	12	9	13	-2	45
16	Derby	35	11	12	12	-3	45
17	Bristol City	35	12	7	16	-15	43
18	Swansea	32	11	8	13	-8	41
19	Cardiff	35	11	7	17	-9	40
20	Reading	35	11	6	18	-20	39
21	Birmingham	36	9	11	16	-16	38
22	Hull	36	10	7	19	-10	37
23	Barnsley	33	4	9	20	-25	21
24	Peterborough	32	5	6	21	-39	21
25	Peterboro	33	5	6	22	-42	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	19	12	4	3	+28	40
2	Blackburn	18	12	3	3	+17	39
3	Middlesbrough	18	12	2	4	+14	38
4	West Brom	16	9	6	1	+16	33
5	Coventry	17	10	3	4	+13	33
6	QPR	18	9	6	3	+11	33
7	Derby	18	9	6	3	+8	33
8	Huddersfield	16	9	5	2	+9	32
9	Luton	16	9	4	3	+12	31
10	Sheffield United	16	9	3	4	+17	30
11	Millwall	16	8	5	3	+7	29
12	Blackpool	18	9	2	7	+1	29
13	Swansea	16	8	4	4	+8	28
14	Stoke	18	8	4	6	+7	28
15	Bournemouth	14	8	3	3	+14	27
16	Preston	18	6	9	3	+3	27
17	Bristol City	18	7	5	6	+0	26
18	Nott'm Forest	16	7	3	6	+3	24
19	Birmingham	17	6	5	6	+0	23
20	Reading	18	6	4	8	-8	22
21	Cardiff	17	6	2	9	+1	20
22	Hull	18	5	3	10	-6	18
23	Peterborough	15	4	5	6	-3	17
24	Peterboro	16	4	5	7	-6	17
25	Barnsley	15	3	4	8	-8	13

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	15	10	3	2	+26	33
2	Bournemouth	17	9	5	3	+9	32
3	Sheffield United	17	8	4	5	+0	28
4	Preston	18	7	4	7	-2	25
5	Huddersfield	17	6	6	5	+1	24
6	Nott'm Forest	15	6	5	4	+7	23
7	QPR	17	7	2	8	-2	23
8	Coventry	17	6	5	6	-2	23
9	Luton	16	6	4	6	-1	22
10	Blackburn	17	5	6	6	-1	21
11	Cardiff	18	5	5	8	-10	20
12	Stoke	15	5	4	6	+0	19
13	Hull	18	5	4	9	-4	19
14	West Brom	19	5	4	10	-7	19
15	Middlesbrough	15	4	5	6	-3	17
16	Millwall	17	4	5	8	-7	17
17	Reading	17	5	2	10	-12	17
18	Bristol City	17	5	2	10	-15	17
19	Blackpool	16	3	7	6	-3	16
20	Birmingham	19	3	6	10	-16	15
21	Swansea	16	3	4	9	-16	13
22	Derby	17	2	6	9	-11	12
23	Barnsley	18	1	5	12	-17	8
24	Peterboro	17	1	1	15	-36	4
25	Peterborough	17	1	1	15	-36	4

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.