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Championship

Referee: D Whitestone

Reading

T T U S U

2–1

Full-time

Stoke

U U T S S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Reading Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 25%

17%

33%

Points per game

0,8

1,5

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

33%

50%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,5

2,7

Scored

0,7

1,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-1,2

+0,3

This season — Championship · 41/41 matches

Win Ø 33%

29%

37%

Points per game

1,1

1,4

Over 2.5 Ø 51%

56%

46%

Both score Ø 54%

56%

51%

Average goals

3,0

2,4

Scored

1,2

1,3

Conceded

1,8

1,1

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,2

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–1

41% Possession 59%

9 Shots 12

3 Shots on target 3

2 Blocked shots 4

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

5 Corners 3

1 Offside 0

6 Free kicks against 13

1 Yellow cards 3

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Reading 22. · Stoke 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	40	26	8	6	+62	86
2	Bournemouth	39	21	11	7	+29	74
3	Huddersfield	40	19	12	9	+14	69
4	Sheffield United	40	20	8	12	+18	68
5	Middlesbrough	40	20	8	12	+18	68
6	Luton	41	19	11	11	+17	68
7	Blackburn	41	18	11	12	+14	65
8	Coventry	41	17	11	13	+9	62
9	West Brom	41	16	12	13	+9	60
10	Swansea	41	17	9	15	-2	60
11	Preston	42	15	15	12	-2	60
12	Nott'm Forest	35	17	8	10	+21	59
13	QPR	42	17	8	17	+0	59
14	Millwall	41	15	13	13	+1	58
15	Stoke	41	15	11	15	+7	56
16	Blackpool	40	15	10	15	-1	55
17	Derby	42	13	13	16	-6	52
18	Cardiff	41	14	8	19	-11	50
19	Bristol City	41	13	8	20	-20	47
20	Birmingham	42	11	13	18	-18	46
21	Hull	42	12	8	22	-10	44
22	Reading	41	12	8	21	-27	44
23	Barnsley	40	6	12	22	-26	30
24	Peterboro	40	6	9	25	-48	27
25	Peterborough	40	6	9	25	-48	27

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+30	43
2	Blackburn	21	13	4	4	+18	43
3	Middlesbrough	19	13	2	4	+15	41
4	Derby	21	11	7	3	+11	40
5	Sheffield United	19	12	3	4	+23	39
6	Bournemouth	20	11	6	3	+18	39
7	Luton	20	11	5	4	+16	38
8	Coventry	22	11	5	6	+13	38
9	Huddersfield	19	11	5	3	+12	38
10	West Brom	19	10	7	2	+15	37
11	Millwall	20	10	6	4	+9	36
12	Blackpool	22	11	3	8	+2	36
13	Stoke	21	10	4	7	+9	34
14	Nott'm Forest	19	10	3	6	+11	33
15	Preston	20	8	9	3	+5	33
16	QPR	22	9	6	7	+4	33
17	Swansea	19	9	5	5	+6	32
18	Bristol City	20	7	6	7	-1	27
19	Cardiff	22	8	3	11	-2	27
20	Birmingham	21	7	6	8	-3	27
21	Reading	20	7	4	9	-8	25
22	Barnsley	20	5	7	8	-5	22
23	Peterboro	20	4	7	9	-11	19
24	Peterborough	20	4	7	9	-11	19
25	Hull	21	5	3	13	-11	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Fulham	20	13	4	3	+32	43
2	Bournemouth	19	10	5	4	+11	35
3	Huddersfield	21	8	7	6	+2	31
4	Luton	21	8	6	7	+1	30
5	Sheffield United	21	8	5	8	-5	29
6	Swansea	22	8	4	10	-8	28
7	Middlesbrough	21	7	6	8	+3	27
8	Preston	22	7	6	9	-7	27
9	Nott'm Forest	16	7	5	4	+10	26
10	Hull	21	7	5	9	+1	26
11	QPR	20	8	2	10	-4	26
12	Coventry	19	6	6	7	-4	24
13	West Brom	22	6	5	11	-6	23
14	Cardiff	19	6	5	8	-9	23
15	Stoke	20	5	7	8	-2	22
16	Blackburn	20	5	7	8	-4	22
17	Millwall	21	5	7	9	-8	22
18	Bristol City	21	6	2	13	-19	20
19	Blackpool	18	4	7	7	-3	19
20	Birmingham	21	4	7	10	-15	19
21	Reading	21	5	4	12	-19	19
22	Derby	21	2	6	13	-17	12
23	Barnsley	20	1	5	14	-21	8
24	Peterboro	20	2	2	16	-37	8
25	Peterborough	20	2	2	16	-37	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.