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2. Bundesliga

Hamburg

U T T U T

4–0

Full-time

Erzgebirge Aue

T U S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Hamburg Erzgebirge Aue

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

50%

83%

Both score Ø 75%

83%

67%

Average goals

2,8

4,0

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

1,5

2,5

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,0

This season — 2. Bundesliga · 27/27 matches

Win Ø 26%

37%

15%

Points per game

1,6

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 56%

52%

59%

Both score Ø 65%

74%

56%

Average goals

2,8

3,0

Scored

1,7

1,0

Conceded

1,1

2,0

Goal diff per game

+0,7

-1,0

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–0

20 Shots 7

8 Shots on target 6

9 Corners 2

11 Free kicks against 9

0 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Hamburg 7. · Erzgebirge Aue 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Werder Bremen	28	15	7	6	+15	52
2	Darmstadt	28	15	6	7	+21	51
3	St Pauli	28	15	6	7	+15	51
4	Schalke 04	28	15	5	8	+22	50
5	Nurnberg	28	13	7	8	+4	46
6	Heidenheim	28	13	6	9	+1	45
7	Hamburg	27	10	12	5	+18	42
8	Paderborn	28	10	10	8	+9	40
9	Karlsruhe	28	9	11	8	+6	38
10	Regensburg	28	10	7	11	+5	37
11	Hansa Rostock	28	10	7	11	-7	37
12	Holstein Kiel	28	9	7	12	-11	34
13	Fortuna Dusseldorf	28	8	9	11	-1	33
14	Hannover	28	8	8	12	-15	32
15	Sandhausen	28	7	10	11	-14	31
16	Dresden	28	7	7	14	-11	28
17	Erzgebirge Aue	27	4	7	16	-28	19
18	Ingolstadt	28	4	6	18	-29	18

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	St Pauli	13	10	2	1	+19	32
2	Heidenheim	14	9	4	1	+11	31
3	Darmstadt	14	8	3	3	+13	27
4	Schalke 04	14	8	2	4	+12	26
5	Werder Bremen	14	7	5	2	+11	26
6	Hamburg	14	6	6	2	+11	24
7	Nurnberg	14	7	3	4	+4	24
8	Karlsruhe	15	5	7	3	+6	22
9	Regensburg	14	6	3	5	+6	21
10	Holstein Kiel	14	6	2	6	-4	20
11	Dresden	14	5	3	6	+1	18
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	5	5	+3	17
13	Hannover	14	4	5	5	-6	17
14	Hansa Rostock	14	4	3	7	-7	15
15	Paderborn	14	2	6	6	-3	12
16	Erzgebirge Aue	14	3	2	9	-15	11
17	Sandhausen	13	2	4	7	-12	10
18	Ingolstadt	14	2	4	8	-12	10

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Paderborn	14	8	4	2	+12	28
2	Werder Bremen	14	8	2	4	+4	26
3	Schalke 04	14	7	3	4	+10	24
4	Darmstadt	14	7	3	4	+8	24
5	Hansa Rostock	14	6	4	4	+0	22
6	Nurnberg	14	6	4	4	+0	22
7	Sandhausen	15	5	6	4	-2	21
8	St Pauli	15	5	4	6	-4	19
9	Hamburg	13	4	6	3	+7	18
10	Karlsruhe	13	4	4	5	+0	16
11	Regensburg	14	4	4	6	-1	16
12	Fortuna Dusseldorf	14	4	4	6	-4	16
13	Hannover	14	4	3	7	-9	15
14	Holstein Kiel	14	3	5	6	-7	14
15	Heidenheim	14	4	2	8	-10	14
16	Dresden	14	2	4	8	-12	10
17	Erzgebirge Aue	13	1	5	7	-13	8
18	Ingolstadt	14	2	2	10	-17	8

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.