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Championship
Referee: J Brooks
Stoke
T U U U T
2–0
Full-time
Millwall
S S U U S

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stoke Millwall
Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches
Win Ø 34%
0%
67%
Points per game
0,5
2,3
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
67%
17%
Both score Ø 50%
83%
17%
Average goals
2,8
1,2
Scored
1,2
1,0
Conceded
1,7
0,2
Goal diff per game
-0,5
+0,8
This season — Championship · 39/38 matches
Win Ø 36%
33%
39%
Points per game
1,3
1,5
Over 2.5 Ø 42%
49%
34%
Both score Ø 54%
54%
53%
Average goals
2,5
2,0
Scored
1,3
1,1
Conceded
1,2
0,9
Goal diff per game
+0,1
+0,1
🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

47% Possession 53%
15 Shots 7
2 Shots on target 2
8 Blocked shots 1
2 Goalkeeper saves 1
4 Corners 4
1 Offside 1
10 Free kicks against 12
3 Yellow cards 1
0 Red cards 0
The table before the match Stoke 16. · Millwall 11.
# Team K V U T +/− P
1 Fulham 39 25 8 6 +60 83
2 Bournemouth 37 19 11 7 +25 68
3 Huddersfield 38 18 12 8 +16 66
4 Sheffield United 38 19 8 11 +18 65
5 Blackburn 39 18 10 11 +15 64
6 Luton 37 18 8 11 +15 62
7 Middlesbrough 38 18 8 12 +10 62
8 Coventry 40 17 10 13 +9 61
9 West Brom 39 16 11 12 +10 59
10 QPR 38 17 8 13 +7 59
11 Millwall 38 15 12 11 +4 57
12 Preston 40 14 15 11 -2 57
13 Nott'm Forest 34 16 8 10 +18 56
14 Blackpool 38 15 10 13 +3 55
15 Swansea 38 15 8 15 -7 53
16 Stoke 39 13 11 15 +4 50
17 Cardiff 40 14 8 18 -7 50
18 Derby 41 12 13 16 -7 49
19 Bristol City 39 13 7 19 -19 46
20 Hull 40 12 8 20 -7 44
21 Birmingham 40 10 12 18 -19 42
22 Reading 39 11 7 21 -28 40
23 Barnsley 39 6 11 22 -26 29
24 Peterboro 37 5 8 24 -46 23
25 Peterborough 37 5 8 24 -46 23

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.

Match report

Stoke Millwall
1–0 J. Brown
L. Baker
19′
Half-time 1–0
Josh Tymon 🟨
56′
62′
🔁 T. Bradshaw
↦ S. Malone
62′
🔁 M. Kieftenbeld
↦ T. Burey
Jacob Brown 🟨
65′
J. Thompson 🔁
↦ M. Vrančić
70′
1–1 G. Saville
own goal
70′
79′
🔁 S. Ojo
↦ M. Bennett
Jordan Thompson 🟨
84′
85′
🟨 Daniel Ballard
T. Campbell 🔁
↦ D. Wright-Phillips
89′
S. Fletcher 🔁
↦ J. Maja
95′
Full-time 1–1

Line-ups

Stoke

4-3-3
13 J. Bonham G
19 P. Jagielka D
6 L. Moore D
14 J. Tymon D
24 T. Harwood-Bellis D
8 M. Vrančić M
4 J. Allen M
42 L. Baker M
32 D. Wright-Phillips F
33 J. Maja F
18 J. Brown F
Bench (7)
15 J. Thompson
10 T. Campbell
9 S. Fletcher
12 J. Bursik
16 B. Wilmot
28 R. Sawyers
27 A. Sima

Coach: M. O'Neill

Millwall

3-4-1-2
33 B. Bialkowski G
11 S. Malone M
3 M. Wallace D
5 J. Cooper D
26 D. Ballard D
2 D. McNamara M
7 J. Wallace F
17 G. Saville M
24 B. Mitchell M
20 M. Bennett F
32 T. Burey F
Bench (7)
9 T. Bradshaw
6 M. Kieftenbeld
14 S. Ojo
21 C. Mahoney
15 A. Pearce
1 G. Long
49 Z. Lovelace

Coach: G. Rowett

Odds comparison

Green columns are the outcomes that came in.

1X2
H ✓
2,35
U
3,13
B
3,25
Over/under goals
O1,5 ✓
O2,5
2,41
U2,5 ✓
1,57
U3,5 ✓
Both teams to score
BLS ja
BLS nei ✓

Referee

J Brooks · 175 kamper i vår database

🟨 Yellow cards
4,1 / match
Above average
⚽ Free kicks
23,1 / match
Above average

🟥 Red cards: 0,12 per match

The analysis is a statistical estimate based on the teams' results and underlying performances (xG) — not a guarantee. See the model's results.