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Championship

Referee: T Bramall

Watford

U T T S U

1–0

Full-time

Burnley

T U T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

⚠️ One of the teams has played few league matches recently (e.g. newly promoted). The analysis is therefore more uncertain than usual, and we give no recommendations for this match.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Burnley

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 17%

17%

Points per game

0,8

Over 2.5 Ø 33%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

50%

67%

Average goals

2,2

Scored

0,7

0,8

Conceded

1,5

1,3

Goal diff per game

-0,8

-0,5

This season — Championship · 2/2 matches

Win Ø 50%

50%

Points per game

2,0

Over 2.5 Ø 0%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

1,5

Scored

1,0

Conceded

0,5

Goal diff per game

+0,5

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 1–0

36% Possession 64%

5 Shots 11

1 Shots on target 4

3 Blocked shots 1

4 Goalkeeper saves 0

3 Corners 6

4 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 12

1 Yellow cards 1

1 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 4. · Burnley 3. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	2	2	0	0	+4	6
2	Sunderland	2	1	1	0	+1	4
3	Burnley	2	1	1	0	+1	4
4	Watford	2	1	1	0	+1	4
5	Birmingham	2	1	1	0	+1	4
6	Hull	2	1	1	0	+1	4
7	Sheffield United	2	1	0	1	+1	3
8	QPR	2	1	0	1	+0	3
9	Millwall	2	1	0	1	+0	3
10	Stoke	2	1	0	1	+0	3
11	Reading	2	1	0	1	+0	3
12	Cardiff	2	1	0	1	+0	3
13	Blackpool	2	1	0	1	-1	3
14	West Brom	2	0	2	0	+0	2
15	Wigan	2	0	2	0	+0	2
16	Luton	2	0	2	0	+0	2
17	Preston	2	0	2	0	+0	2
18	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Middlesbrough	2	0	1	1	-1	1
21	Norwich	2	0	1	1	-1	1
22	Swansea	2	0	1	1	-3	1
23	Bristol City	2	0	0	2	-2	0
24	Huddersfield	2	0	0	2	-2	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Sheffield United	1	1	0	0	+2	3
2	Millwall	1	1	0	0	+2	3
3	Stoke	1	1	0	0	+2	3
4	QPR	1	1	0	0	+1	3
5	Hull	1	1	0	0	+1	3
6	Birmingham	1	1	0	0	+1	3
7	Reading	1	1	0	0	+1	3
8	Watford	1	1	0	0	+1	3
9	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+1	3
10	Cardiff	1	1	0	0	+1	3
11	Blackpool	1	1	0	0	+1	3
12	Norwich	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Burnley	1	0	1	0	+0	1
14	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
15	Sunderland	1	0	1	0	+0	1
16	Middlesbrough	1	0	1	0	+0	1
17	Rotherham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
18	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
19	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
20	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
21	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
22	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
23	Swansea	1	0	0	1	-3	0

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Blackburn	1	1	0	0	+3	3
2	Sunderland	1	1	0	0	+1	3
3	Burnley	1	1	0	0	+1	3
4	Wigan	1	0	1	0	+0	1
5	Luton	1	0	1	0	+0	1
6	Watford	1	0	1	0	+0	1
7	Coventry	1	0	1	0	+0	1
8	West Brom	1	0	1	0	+0	1
9	Swansea	1	0	1	0	+0	1
10	Birmingham	1	0	1	0	+0	1
11	Hull	1	0	1	0	+0	1
12	Preston	1	0	1	0	+0	1
13	Middlesbrough	1	0	0	1	-1	0
14	Bristol City	1	0	0	1	-1	0
15	Huddersfield	1	0	0	1	-1	0
16	Cardiff	1	0	0	1	-1	0
17	Sheffield United	1	0	0	1	-1	0
18	QPR	1	0	0	1	-1	0
19	Norwich	1	0	0	1	-1	0
20	Reading	1	0	0	1	-1	0
21	Millwall	1	0	0	1	-2	0
22	Stoke	1	0	0	1	-2	0
23	Blackpool	1	0	0	1	-2	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.