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Championship

Referee: L Smith

Watford

U S T T U

2–0

Full-time

Stoke

U T T U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 9%

17%

Points per game

0,8

0,3

Over 2.5 Ø 50%

67%

33%

Both score Ø 59%

67%

50%

Average goals

3,3

1,7

Scored

1,5

0,5

Conceded

1,8

1,2

Goal diff per game

-0,3

-0,7

This season — Championship · 45/45 matches

Win Ø 32%

33%

31%

Points per game

1,3

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

40%

44%

Both score Ø 43%

44%

42%

Average goals

2,4

Scored

1,2

Conceded

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

+0,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

44% Possession 56%

13 Shots 15

6 Shots on target 7

2 Blocked shots 2

7 Goalkeeper saves 4

6 Corners 6

3 Offside 2

13 Free kicks against 17

0 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 13. · Stoke 16. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	45	28	14	3	+49	98
2	Sheffield United	45	27	7	11	+33	88
3	Luton	42	21	13	8	+18	76
4	Middlesbrough	44	22	8	14	+29	74
5	Millwall	45	19	11	15	+8	68
6	West Brom	45	18	12	15	+7	66
7	Blackburn	45	19	9	17	-3	66
8	Coventry	43	17	14	12	+11	65
9	Sunderland	43	17	13	13	+10	64
10	Swansea	45	17	12	16	+3	63
11	Preston	45	17	12	16	-11	63
12	Norwich	45	17	11	17	+4	62
13	Watford	45	15	15	15	+1	60
14	Hull	45	14	15	16	-10	57
15	Bristol City	45	14	14	17	-3	56
16	Stoke	45	14	11	20	+3	53
17	Birmingham	45	14	11	20	-10	53
18	Huddersfield	45	13	11	21	-17	50
19	Reading	45	13	11	21	-20	50
20	QPR	45	13	11	21	-25	50
21	Rotherham	45	11	16	18	-11	49
22	Cardiff	45	13	10	22	-14	49
23	Wigan	45	10	14	21	-27	44
24	Blackpool	45	10	11	24	-25	41

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	22	15	6	1	+31	51
2	Sheffield United	23	16	3	4	+28	51
3	Middlesbrough	22	13	6	3	+27	45
4	Blackburn	23	13	4	6	+8	43
5	West Brom	23	11	7	5	+11	40
6	Millwall	22	11	6	5	+13	39
7	Reading	23	10	8	5	+7	38
8	Luton	21	10	7	4	+10	37
9	Watford	22	10	6	6	+10	36
10	Coventry	21	10	6	5	+5	36
11	Bristol City	23	9	7	7	+6	34
12	Swansea	22	10	4	8	+5	34
13	Rotherham	23	9	6	8	+7	33
14	Hull	23	9	6	8	-3	33
15	Huddersfield	22	8	6	8	-1	30
16	Norwich	22	8	5	9	+1	29
17	Sunderland	22	7	8	7	+0	29
18	Preston	22	7	7	8	-5	28
19	Birmingham	22	7	6	9	+1	27
20	Cardiff	23	6	7	10	-4	25
21	Blackpool	23	6	6	11	-6	24
22	Stoke	23	6	5	12	-2	23
23	QPR	22	6	5	11	-12	23
24	Wigan	22	5	6	11	-18	21

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Burnley	23	13	8	2	+18	47
2	Luton	21	11	6	4	+8	39
3	Sheffield United	22	11	4	7	+5	37
4	Sunderland	21	10	5	6	+10	35
5	Preston	23	10	5	8	-6	35
6	Norwich	23	9	6	8	+3	33
7	Stoke	22	8	6	8	+5	30
8	Coventry	22	7	8	7	+6	29
9	Middlesbrough	22	9	2	11	+2	29
10	Swansea	23	7	8	8	-2	29
11	Millwall	23	8	5	10	-5	29
12	QPR	23	7	6	10	-13	27
13	West Brom	22	7	5	10	-4	26
14	Birmingham	23	7	5	11	-11	26
15	Hull	22	5	9	8	-7	24
16	Watford	23	5	9	9	-9	24
17	Cardiff	22	7	3	12	-10	24
18	Wigan	23	5	8	10	-9	23
19	Blackburn	22	6	5	11	-11	23
20	Bristol City	22	5	7	10	-9	22
21	Huddersfield	23	5	5	13	-16	20
22	Blackpool	22	4	5	13	-19	17
23	Rotherham	22	2	10	10	-18	16
24	Reading	22	3	3	16	-27	12

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.