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Premier League

Referee: Michael Oliver

Watford

T S U S T

0–1

Full-time

Stoke

T T S T T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

🔒 Who wins? Pro

The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Watford Stoke

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 34%

50%

17%

Points per game

1,7

0,7

Over 2.5 Ø 92%

83%

100%

Both score Ø 75%

67%

83%

Average goals

4,0

4,3

Scored

1,7

1,3

Conceded

2,3

3,0

Goal diff per game

-0,7

-1,7

This season — Premier League · 9/9 matches

Win Ø 33%

44%

22%

Points per game

1,7

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 67%

67%

Both score Ø 62%

56%

67%

Average goals

3,6

3,3

Scored

1,7

1,1

Conceded

1,9

2,2

Goal diff per game

-0,2

-1,1

🔒 Goal markets Pro

Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

70% Possession 30%

15 Shots 6

0 Shots on target 2

8 Blocked shots 1

1 Goalkeeper saves 0

8 Corners 1

4 Offside 2

10 Free kicks against 9

4 Yellow cards 4

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Watford 6. · Stoke 17. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	9	8	1	0	+28	25
2	Man United	10	7	2	1	+19	23
3	Tottenham	10	6	2	2	+12	20
4	Chelsea	9	5	1	3	+7	16
5	Arsenal	9	5	1	3	+5	16
6	Watford	9	4	3	2	-2	15
7	Newcastle	9	4	2	3	+2	14
8	Burnley	9	3	4	2	-1	13
9	Liverpool	9	3	4	2	-2	13
10	Southampton	9	3	3	3	-1	12
11	Huddersfield	9	3	3	3	-3	12
12	Brighton	9	3	2	4	-1	11
13	West Brom	9	2	4	3	-3	10
14	Leicester	9	2	3	4	-2	9
15	Swansea	9	2	2	5	-4	8
16	West Ham	9	2	2	5	-9	8
17	Stoke	9	2	2	5	-10	8
18	Everton	9	2	2	5	-11	8
19	Bournemouth	9	2	1	6	-7	7
20	Crystal Palace	9	1	0	8	-17	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man United	5	5	0	0	+15	15
2	Man City	5	4	1	0	+18	13
3	Arsenal	4	4	0	0	+8	12
4	Newcastle	5	3	1	1	+3	10
5	Liverpool	4	2	2	0	+5	8
6	Tottenham	5	2	2	1	+3	8
7	Southampton	6	2	2	2	-1	8
8	Huddersfield	5	2	2	1	-2	8
9	Chelsea	5	2	1	2	+2	7
10	Brighton	4	2	1	1	+1	7
11	Stoke	5	2	1	2	-3	7
12	West Brom	4	1	3	0	+1	6
13	West Ham	4	2	0	2	-1	6
14	Everton	5	2	0	3	-5	6
15	Burnley	4	1	2	1	+0	5
16	Watford	4	1	2	1	-5	5
17	Leicester	4	1	1	2	+0	4
18	Bournemouth	4	1	1	2	-2	4
19	Swansea	5	1	0	4	-5	3
20	Crystal Palace	4	1	0	3	-5	3

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	P
1	Man City	4	4	0	0	+10	12
2	Tottenham	5	4	0	1	+9	12
3	Watford	5	3	1	1	+3	10
4	Chelsea	4	3	0	1	+5	9
5	Man United	5	2	2	1	+4	8
6	Burnley	5	2	2	1	-1	8
7	Swansea	4	1	2	1	+1	5
8	Leicester	5	1	2	2	-2	5
9	Liverpool	5	1	2	2	-7	5
10	Southampton	3	1	1	1	+0	4
11	Huddersfield	4	1	1	2	-1	4
12	Newcastle	4	1	1	2	-1	4
13	Brighton	5	1	1	3	-2	4
14	Arsenal	5	1	1	3	-3	4
15	West Brom	5	1	1	3	-4	4
16	Bournemouth	5	1	0	4	-5	3
17	Everton	4	0	2	2	-6	2
18	West Ham	5	0	2	3	-8	2
19	Stoke	4	0	1	3	-7	1
20	Crystal Palace	5	0	0	5	-12	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.