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Allsvenskan

Referee: K Karlsson

Varnamo

S S T S S

3–1

Full-time

Goteborg

U S S U T

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo Goteborg

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 59%

67%

50%

Points per game

2,2

1,8

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

50%

33%

Both score Ø 50%

50%

Average goals

2,2

2,5

Scored

1,3

1,5

Conceded

0,8

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,5

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 26/26 matches

Win Ø 37%

46%

27%

Points per game

1,5

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 39%

42%

35%

Both score Ø 40%

38%

42%

Average goals

2,3

2,2

Scored

1,2

1,1

Conceded

1,1

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,1

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–1

1,13 xG 0,97

61% Possession 39%

14 Shots 14

7 Shots on target 1

4 Blocked shots 10

0 Goalkeeper saves 4

7 Corners 4

2 Offside 1

7 Free kicks against 15

1 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varnamo 8. · Goteborg 13. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Malmo FF	27	18	4	5	+35	+9.3	58
2	Elfsborg	26	18	3	5	+30	+5.2	57
3	Hacken	27	17	3	7	+30	+8.5	54
4	Djurgarden	27	14	5	8	+7	+3.3	47
5	Kalmar	27	12	6	9	-1	-4.9	42
6	Hammarby	27	11	8	8	+2	+1.5	41
7	Norrkoping	27	11	5	11	+2	+3.3	38
8	Varnamo	26	12	2	12	+1	+0.5	38
9	Sirius	27	10	5	12	+3	+7.9	35
10	Mjallby	27	10	5	12	-3	-2.6	35
11	AIK	26	8	7	11	-3	-0.5	31
12	Halmstad	27	8	7	12	-17	-4.8	31
13	Goteborg	26	7	9	10	-2	-0.9	30
14	Brommapojkarna	27	8	3	16	-14	-4.0	27
15	Degerfors	27	7	3	17	-31	-10.6	24
16	Varberg	27	3	5	19	-39	-11.4	14

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hacken	14	13	0	1	+29	+4.8	39
2	Malmo FF	14	10	3	1	+26	+4.0	33
3	Djurgarden	14	10	2	2	+12	+4.9	32
4	Elfsborg	13	9	2	2	+17	+0.5	29
5	Hammarby	13	8	3	2	+8	+0.3	27
6	Kalmar	13	7	3	3	+1	-2.7	24
7	AIK	13	5	5	3	+5	+3.7	20
8	Norrkoping	13	6	2	5	+2	+0.2	20
9	Sirius	14	6	1	7	+6	+8.3	19
10	Goteborg	13	5	3	5	+7	-0.0	18
11	Degerfors	14	5	2	7	-5	-2.4	17
12	Halmstad	14	4	5	5	-6	-3.1	17
13	Varnamo	13	5	1	7	-2	+1.6	16
14	Brommapojkarna	13	4	2	7	-5	-0.8	14
15	Mjallby	13	3	3	7	-4	-4.8	12
16	Varberg	13	1	3	9	-19	-1.7	6

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Elfsborg	13	9	1	3	+13	+4.7	28
2	Malmo FF	13	8	1	4	+9	+5.2	25
3	Mjallby	14	7	2	5	+1	+2.2	23
4	Varnamo	13	7	1	5	+3	-1.1	22
5	Norrkoping	14	5	3	6	+0	+3.1	18
6	Kalmar	14	5	3	6	-2	-2.1	18
7	Sirius	13	4	4	5	-3	-0.4	16
8	Hacken	13	4	3	6	+1	+3.7	15
9	Djurgarden	13	4	3	6	-5	-1.6	15
10	Hammarby	14	3	5	6	-6	+1.2	14
11	Halmstad	13	4	2	7	-11	-1.8	14
12	Brommapojkarna	14	4	1	9	-9	-3.2	13
13	Goteborg	13	2	6	5	-9	-0.8	12
14	AIK	13	3	2	8	-8	-4.2	11
15	Varberg	14	2	2	10	-20	-9.7	8
16	Degerfors	13	2	1	10	-26	-8.2	7

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.