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Ekstraklasa

Referee: P Gryckiewicz

Stal Mielec

S T S T T

0–1

Full-time

Warta Poznan

T T S T U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Stal Mielec Warta Poznan

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 33%

33%

Points per game

1,2

Over 2.5 Ø 42%

67%

17%

Both score Ø 58%

83%

33%

Average goals

3,3

1,8

Scored

1,7

0,8

Conceded

1,7

1,0

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Ekstraklasa · 11/11 matches

Win Ø 23%

27%

18%

Points per game

1,1

0,9

Over 2.5 Ø 36%

45%

27%

Both score Ø 46%

55%

36%

Average goals

2,7

2,2

Scored

1,4

1,0

Conceded

1,4

1,2

Goal diff per game

+0,0

-0,2

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 0–0

0,63 xG 0,55

63% Possession 37%

10 Shots 10

2 Shots on target 3

3 Blocked shots 1

2 Goalkeeper saves 2

7 Corners 0

0 Offside 2

19 Free kicks against 17

2 Yellow cards 1

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Stal Mielec 13. · Warta Poznan 15. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	12	8	2	2	+12	+4.1	26
2	Jagiellonia	11	8	1	2	+12	+6.6	25
3	Lech Poznan	11	7	2	2	+7	-1.6	23
4	Rakow	11	7	1	3	+9	+5.6	22
5	Legia	11	6	2	3	+4	-0.1	20
6	Zaglebie	12	6	2	4	-1	-1.6	20
7	Pogon Szczecin	12	6	1	5	+9	+5.9	19
8	Radomiak Radom	12	4	3	5	-1	+1.2	15
9	Piast Gliwice	12	2	8	2	+0	+9.5	14
10	Widzew Lodz	11	4	2	5	-2	-3.3	14
11	Cracovia	11	3	5	3	-4	-0.2	14
12	Gornik Zabrze	12	3	4	5	-7	-9.1	13
13	Stal Mielec	11	3	3	5	+0	-4.0	12
14	Korona Kielce	11	2	5	4	-2	-2.7	11
15	Warta Poznan	11	2	4	5	-2	-0.0	10
16	Puszcza	12	2	4	6	-10	-6.4	10
17	Ruch Chorzow	11	1	4	6	-9	-3.1	7
18	LKS Lodz	12	2	1	9	-15	-1.0	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Jagiellonia	6	6	0	0	+13	+8.1	18
2	Lech Poznan	6	5	1	0	+11	+2.5	16
3	Rakow	6	5	1	0	+11	+5.1	16
4	Legia	6	5	0	1	+9	+3.1	15
5	Zaglebie	6	4	2	0	+4	+1.5	14
6	Slask Wroclaw	6	4	1	1	+7	+4.6	13
7	Widzew Lodz	5	4	0	1	+3	+1.9	12
8	Stal Mielec	6	3	2	1	+5	+0.3	11
9	Pogon Szczecin	6	3	0	3	+3	+7.6	9
10	Radomiak Radom	6	2	3	1	+3	+1.5	9
11	Piast Gliwice	6	2	3	1	+1	+7.6	9
12	Puszcza	6	2	3	1	+0	-0.7	9
13	Gornik Zabrze	6	2	2	2	-2	-2.9	8
14	LKS Lodz	5	2	1	2	-2	–	7
15	Korona Kielce	5	1	3	1	+1	+3.0	6
16	Warta Poznan	6	1	2	3	-2	+0.7	5
17	Cracovia	5	1	2	2	-5	-1.0	5
18	Ruch Chorzow	5	1	1	3	-4	-0.8	4

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Slask Wroclaw	6	4	1	1	+5	-0.5	13
2	Pogon Szczecin	6	3	1	2	+6	-1.7	10
3	Cracovia	6	2	3	1	+1	+0.8	9
4	Jagiellonia	5	2	1	2	-1	-1.5	7
5	Lech Poznan	5	2	1	2	-4	-4.1	7
6	Rakow	5	2	0	3	-2	+0.5	6
7	Radomiak Radom	6	2	0	4	-4	-0.3	6
8	Zaglebie	6	2	0	4	-5	-3.2	6
9	Warta Poznan	5	1	2	2	+0	-0.8	5
10	Piast Gliwice	6	0	5	1	-1	+1.9	5
11	Korona Kielce	6	1	2	3	-3	-5.6	5
12	Legia	5	1	2	2	-5	-3.2	5
13	Gornik Zabrze	6	1	2	3	-5	-6.2	5
14	Ruch Chorzow	6	0	3	3	-5	-2.3	3
15	Widzew Lodz	6	0	2	4	-5	-5.2	2
16	Stal Mielec	5	0	1	4	-5	-4.3	1
17	Puszcza	6	0	1	5	-10	-5.7	1
18	LKS Lodz	7	0	0	7	-13	-1.0	0

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.