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Allsvenskan

Referee: Joakim Ostling

Varnamo

T U T S T

2–3

Full-time

Hammarby

S S T S U

Retrospective analysis — the model is trained only on matches played before this one.

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The model's probabilities for a home win, draw and away win — with reasoning and recommended markets.

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Team trends

Varnamo Hammarby

Last 6 — all competitions · 6/6 matches

Win Ø 42%

17%

67%

Points per game

0,8

2,2

Over 2.5 Ø 25%

17%

33%

Both score Ø 33%

33%

Average goals

1,7

2,5

Scored

0,5

1,7

Conceded

1,2

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,7

+0,8

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

This season — Allsvenskan · 16/17 matches

Win Ø 36%

65%

Points per game

0,4

2,1

Over 2.5 Ø 43%

44%

41%

Both score Ø 49%

56%

41%

Average goals

2,6

Scored

0,8

1,8

Conceded

1,8

0,8

Goal diff per game

-0,9

+1,0

xG created Pro

xG conceded Pro

xG diff Pro

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Expected goals, over/under and both teams to score — priced by the model before kick-off.

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🔒 Most likely result Pro

The model's top final scores with the best bookmaker odds.

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Match stats

Half-time score: 2–1

1,64 xG 2,55

35% Possession 65%

12 Shots 22

7 Shots on target 10

4 Blocked shots 5

7 Goalkeeper saves 5

3 Corners 6

1 Offside 4

13 Free kicks against 9

3 Yellow cards 2

0 Red cards 0

The table before the match Varnamo 16. · Hammarby 2. ▾

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	17	12	4	1	+20	+2.6	40
2	Hammarby	17	11	3	3	+17	+11.6	36
3	Malmo FF	18	9	6	3	+14	+10.5	33
4	AIK	18	9	6	3	+8	+3.5	33
5	GAIS	17	8	7	2	+14	+7.2	31
6	Elfsborg	16	9	2	5	+8	+3.4	29
7	Djurgarden	17	7	4	6	+3	+4.4	25
8	Goteborg	16	8	1	7	-1	+0.8	25
9	Hacken	17	6	4	7	-6	+0.8	22
10	Brommapojkarna	17	6	1	10	-2	+0.0	19
11	Norrkoping	17	5	4	8	-4	-10.8	19
12	Halmstad	17	5	2	10	-20	-10.8	17
13	Degerfors	17	4	2	11	-18	-1.3	14
14	Sirius	16	3	4	9	-7	-4.7	13
15	Oster	17	3	4	10	-11	-9.3	13
16	Varnamo	16	1	4	11	-15	-7.7	7

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Hammarby	10	8	1	1	+13	+10.8	25
2	Mjallby	8	6	2	0	+11	+3.8	20
3	AIK	8	5	3	0	+10	+3.5	18
4	Malmo FF	8	5	2	1	+10	+7.4	17
5	Elfsborg	8	5	1	2	+6	+1.2	16
6	GAIS	8	4	3	1	+6	+4.8	15
7	Djurgarden	9	3	4	2	+3	+4.3	13
8	Halmstad	9	4	1	4	-6	-2.5	13
9	Hacken	9	3	2	4	-4	+3.3	11
10	Goteborg	8	3	1	4	+0	+1.4	10
11	Norrkoping	9	3	1	5	-2	-1.4	10
12	Sirius	8	2	1	5	-3	-0.6	7
13	Varnamo	8	1	3	4	-4	-3.5	6
14	Brommapojkarna	8	2	0	6	-5	+0.7	6
15	Oster	8	1	2	5	-6	-4.6	5
16	Degerfors	9	1	2	6	-12	+0.2	5

#	Team	K	V	U	T	+/−	xG +/−	P
1	Mjallby	9	6	2	1	+9	-1.3	20
2	GAIS	9	4	4	1	+8	+2.4	16
3	Malmo FF	10	4	4	2	+4	+3.1	16
4	Goteborg	8	5	0	3	-1	-0.6	15
5	AIK	10	4	3	3	-2	-0.1	15
6	Brommapojkarna	9	4	1	4	+3	-0.7	13
7	Elfsborg	8	4	1	3	+2	+2.2	13
8	Djurgarden	8	4	0	4	+0	+0.0	12
9	Hammarby	7	3	2	2	+4	+0.8	11
10	Hacken	8	3	2	3	-2	-2.5	11
11	Norrkoping	8	2	3	3	-2	-9.3	9
12	Degerfors	8	3	0	5	-6	-1.5	9
13	Oster	9	2	2	5	-5	-4.7	8
14	Sirius	8	1	3	4	-4	-4.1	6
15	Halmstad	8	1	1	6	-14	-8.3	4
16	Varnamo	8	0	1	7	-11	-4.3	1

Calculated from our results data. “xG +/−” is expected goal difference — a positive number with a low league position suggests an undervalued team. Ties on points are sorted by goal difference; some leagues use other rules.